Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Movie Review: Babel

Complaining that a movie called "Babel" is confusing should be some kind of irony. What's stranger still, is that the confusion has nothing to do with the plot, which is fairly straightforward. A couple of Moroccan kids, trying out a new rifle, accidentally shoot an American tourist (Cate Blanchett). The tourist and her husband (Brad Pitt) have left their kids in the care of a Mexican nanny. Their emergency means that they're counting on the nanny to miss her son's wedding in Mexico, so that she can take care of their kids. In Japan, a deaf-mute teen is angry about her mother's death, and anxious about the fact that she's still a virgin.

If one of these things doesn't seem like the others, you see where this is going. I must be getting old, because ten years ago I absolutely never would have objected to a cute Japanese nymphomaniac being gratuitously tossed into a movie. But in Babel, the Tokyo-set storyline really belongs in another film. It’s visually impressive and sometimes insightful, but it doesn’t really match the other storylines, despite paying lip service to the themes of language barriers and cultural misunderstanding.

Actually, that’s a little bit backwards. It’s the other segments that are paying lip service to the miscommunication theme announced in the title and in the advertising. Even though Pitt and Blanchett are strangers in Morocco, their lack of language skills never really impacts upon their plight—there is at least one native in their group who speaks English pretty well, and is willing to translate and help. Similarly, the Mexican Nanny speaks English fairly well, as does her nephew (Gael Garcia Bernal of The Science of Sleep), and the tourists’ kids seem to understand their nanny regardless of whether she’s speaking English or Spanish. Meanwhile, the Moroccan goatherds who started the whole mess don’t face any language barrier at all—just the brutal local law enforcement officials, who seem eager to prove to the world that the tourists were attacked by bandits, not terrorists. Only Chieko, the deaf-mute Japanese girl, has difficulty communicating with the world around her as the main reason for her problems.

The Moroccan kids are undone by a childish mistake. The American tourists have the phenomenal bad luck of getting shot by a stray bullet while in the middle of nowhere. Other characters demonstrate a complete lack of sense by cavalierly crossing the US/Mexico border even though they're illegal, and driving through an American border checkpoint while drunk and possibly armed, and...I could say more, but then I'd be in spoilers territory. Let's just say that if the director, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, and the screenwriter, Guillermo Arriaga, were not both from Mexico, they might come under some fire for the stupidity of their Mexican characters.

Arriaga's script is horribly uneven. There are good moments, such as a scene between Pitt and Blanchett where the conversation takes place almost completely in unfinished sentences and awkward pauses. It's beautifully written and acted, the dialogue coming in fragments as much because they have long-standing issues between them as because they've stopped listening to each other. But in other places, Arriaga's plot just doesn't make sense. Sure, it sounds topical that the U.S. would blame terrorism and create an international incident over an accidental shooting in a Muslim country, but the story wants us to believe that the same day that Blanchett's character has been shot, the U.S. has taken control of the roads in Morocco. I know we're an overbearing, empirialist superpower, and Morocco's a small, poor country, but it would take more than a few hours to stage an invasion, even if we thought Brad Pitt's life might be in danger.

Inarritu's direction makes up for some of this. The film is shot beautifully, and has long stretches with little or no dialogue. When Inarritu's busy showing us how people live, it's a whole lot easier to suspend disbelief. The wedding in Mexico is breathtaking, as are the mountains of Morocco, and just about every one of the scenes set in Japan. But even with these beautiful visual touches, the intercutting of the storylines breaks up each story's rhythm. Things will be building to crisis in one storyline, and then that storyline will be put on the backburner, until you've almost forgotten it, eliminating all the urgency and tension that had built up. Imagine throwing scenes from Lost in Translation into the TV show 24, as a season-long storyline. That's how jarring it is.

Despite all that, this movie is recommended, for its ambition, if nothing else. The performances are solid all around, and Rinko Kikuchi, the young woman who plays Chieko, is amazing. I spent a fair share of time with hearing impaired and deaf teens, and Ms. Kikuchi's performance is flawless. I wish I could say the same for Babel.

Sunday, November 26, 2006

Movie Review: Casino Royale

On Filmspotting--one of my favorite podcasts--the co-hosts, Adam and Sam, talked about the trailer for the newest James Bond film, Casino Royale. The trailer starts out in black and white with grittier, more realistic scenes of the new Bond, Daniel Craig, kicking butt, followed by color scenes depicting the kind of sprawling action set pieces, chases and such for which the Bond franchise has become famous.

The question the Filmspotting hosts had is that the black and white segment looked interesting, while the color action sequences looked like more of the same from a franchise that has become stuck in a rut of flavorless, unbelievable, over-the-top action. It was not promising to learn that this new Bond would be directed by Martin Campbell, director of the previous Bond's debut, 1995's GoldenEye. GoldenEye was the very image of Bond mediocrity--not an unpleasant film, but rather safe and generic. So what was it going to be: a new direction for Bond or more of the same?

The answer, happily, is a new direction for our favorite British spy. Casino Royale does a Batman Begins to the Bond franchise, re-starting it, showing an origin story of sorts, and bringing the franchise away from camp and toward a more realistic focus. The plot of Casino Royale is simple. There's a criminal called Le Chifre who's a financier for terrorist organizations. He winds up owing his clients a ton of money, so he organizes a high-stakes (like, $10 million per head) poker tournament to make the money back. The new Double-O agent, James Bond, is sent out to make sure Le Chifre loses the tournament, so that the Brits can squeeze him for information on his terrorist contacts.

That's it. There are no death rays or invisible cars in this film--not even the old laser beam-in-a-watch. When this Bond takes a beatdown--or, even more surprisingly, when he kills someone--there's copious blood and a lot of dry cleaning involved. Not to mention fewer one-liners.

This all works with Craig in the lead, for all the same reasons that so many folks thought casting Craig was a disaster. Craig's face, handsome, but craggy and worn even at the age of thirty-eight, reflects the fact that many of the things Bond does aren't pretty. He's the first Bond since Sean Connery whose presence could really be considered menacing. At the same time, Craig's face is expressive enough that he can show the newbie awkwardness with which Bond first dons his signature tux or registers his first kill. Oh, and the guy's cut like a piece of granite, which helps sell those fight scenes.

His supporting cast is a mixed bag. Eva Green is terrific as the first Bond girl ever to have a realistic reaction to someone being killed in front of her eyes. Dame Judi Dench is predictably gruff as M, the only cast member from previous films to reprise her role in Casino. However, Mads Mikkelsen doesn't really register as Le Chifre--a stony poker face is requisite in poker, I suppose, but not such a big advantage in acting.

As much as I enjoyed Casino Royale, it wasn't perfect. There are some serious pacing problems for the film, which is nearly two and a half hours long. As Brother T says, it suffered from Return of the King's problem, where the movie looked like it was over, then started up again, three or four times. The action sequences, some of which were innovative and exciting, often ran a bit too long.

But the length of the film is somewhat justified by all the exposition they pack in between those action sequences. The main body of the movie is based around the poker tournament, the development of the relationship between Craig's Bond and Green's Vesper Lynd, and lots and lots of talking. It was great to see a Bond film in which they actually bother to develop characters, and I'm happy to say that the most tense sequence in any Bond film in at least a decade has absolutely nothing to do with guns, explosives or fighting. That's pretty cool, and well worth a few slow spots in the film.

Recommended, highly recommended if you're a Bond fan. A few random notes:
  • Since it is a vital part of any James Bond film, I have to remark that the opening credits sequence was very disappointing. The playing-card motif looked like something out of the 60's, just without the comforting silhouttes of nude women. Chris Cornell's theme song was just bland, the most forgettable entry since Sheryl Crow's song for Tomorrow Never Dies. Why doesn't someone just put Portishead on retainer for this job? They can't possibly do a worse job...
  • It's nice that someone remembered that James Bond is supposed to be a spy. During the Timothy Dalton and Pierce Brosnan tenures, the character morphed into a paramilitary man of action, who didn't seem to have much use for snooping around in other people's affairs, preferring to stick with violence and extreme sports.
  • Martin Campbell has one of the stranger resumes I've ever seen for a director. It includes one movie--a 1991 made-for-cable effort called Cast a Deadly Spell--which I absolutely love, and another--1988's Criminal Law--which is one of the most befuddling and disjointed disasters I've ever seen (Gary Oldman's performance in Criminal Law is so over-the-top that the film is a so-bad-it's-good classic). He directed some of the best episodes of one of the best TV series ever (in season one of Homicide: Life on the Street), as well as some middling, but reasonably enjoyable, action films like the Mask of Zorro and No Escape. The guy was all over the place.

Saturday, November 25, 2006

Moving Forward

Season's been over for almost a month. The awards are all given out. It's not quite chilly enough outside to light up the hot stove.

Welcome to baseball's no-man's land. Thanksgiving week is usually baseball's quiet time, with things picking up again during the winter meetings (even though those have been quieter than usual the last few years). So we're looking at a quiet week, with the possibility of no real baseball news--and particularly no Yankees news, since there aren't any free agents the Yanks are clearly courting right now. I have a few film reviews stored up, so we'll start seeing those this week (reviews of Babel and Casino Royale should be up in the next 24 hours), and I'll start gearing up for a look back at the season (and forward to 2007). Otherwise, things should be rather quiet...but you never know.

So, here's a quick rundown of the scant news pickings for the week:

Anthony McCarron in the Daily News has a profile of the Yankees' new hitting coach, Kevin Long. Interesting side note from this article is that Long apparently has an existing relationship with Alex Rodriguez. This seems to follow my theory of Mattingly's bench coach assignment being more a matter of being kicked upstairs rather than a true promotion. I also wonder how much authority Long is going to have as long as the prior hitting coach--unlike Long, a former major league star--is still on the coaching roster.

You knew Derek Jeter would land on his feet. I guess it's easier to take an MVP loss when you can console yourself in the arms of Jessica Biel. And yes, if Biel wants to make out at an exhibit of religious artifacts--or during Schindler's List, the Passion of the Christ, or An Inconvenient Truth, for that matter--you make out. No questions asked.

Speaking of the MVP vote, it seems like BWAA as a whole has patched over this dead news cycle by defending themselves and their brethren from accusations of stupidity on the Jeter/Morneau vote (and to a much lesser extent on the Pujols/Howard vote). In the New York Post, Mike Vaccaro argues that Jeter is the victim of a Bronx Bias, which is an idea that has some merit. So long as Jeter's surrounded by eight-figure salaries and all-stars, folks who believe that there's an "East Coast Bias" will always have an excuse not to recognize his accomplishments.

Lightning rod Joe Cowley (no relation to the onetime Yankees pitcher of the same name) has made himself a household name for not only dropping Jeter to the sixth spot on his ballot and excluding Joe Mauer altogether, but he also gave gave A.J. Pierzynski a 10th place vote. This has, of course, led to radio appearances across the country (like this one, with Mike and the Mad Dog, hat tip to Baseball Primer) for Cowley to engage in "debate" over his choice. Cowley, a White Sox beat writer who had already had his award voting priviliges suspended once before (for making a Chicago "homer" ballot in 2003) uses his ballot to suck up to players who gave him good quotes (as, apparently, Pierzynski did) and gets to be a conversation piece for national discussion. I guess that's the way that obscure jerks like Cowley become bigger jerks like Jay Mariotti.

All of this--the articles, the radio appearances, even the outraged reaction of geeks like me on the Internets--is the point of the BWAA voting on awards. Morneau doesn't get voted in because the writers are stupid or lazy. He gets voted in because it's boring if everyone agrees who the MVP is. By making dingbat, contrarian decisions, the voters create more opportunities to bloviate about why those contrarian positions were right or wrong. There was a movie a few years ago called "Our Brand is Crisis," about James Carville and other American political consultants working on a presidential campaign in Bolivia. The BWAA's motto should be "Our Brand is Controversy."

Tuesday, November 21, 2006

Coronation Interrupted

Don't get too cocky. It should be a Yankee fan mantra by now, on the order of "Don't believe Carl Pavano" and "Never pitch to David Ortiz." It's hard to keep from getting carried away if you root for the Bronx Bombers, since the huge media presence in the Big Apple and surrounding metro area make for an echo chamber, which creates self-reinforcing impressions. Such as "Eric Duncan's a top prospect" (nope, he wasn't), "Chien Ming Wang was the second-best pitcher in the AL" (close, but no cigar), and "Derek Jeter is a shoo-in for MVP."

I allowed myself to get carried away in that last one. It just seemed like we'd hit on the right conditions for Jeter to win the league's top prize--first place team; Jeter the clear best player on the Yankees; second-best player in the league (Minnesota's Joe Mauer) having a couple of fellow candidates on his squad, to split up the vote (RBI machine Justin Morneau and Supernatural Johan Santana); middle-order mashers like David Ortiz and Travis Hafner being out of contention pretty early in the year. There hadn't been a season before this one where the Captain had this clear a shot at the award.

Yeah, that turned out to be wrong. The AL MVP results came in about an hour ago, and the writers snubbed the Captain in favor of Morneau, by a narrow 320-306 point margin. In terms of first place votes, Morneau was clearly the consensus pick, receiving 15 out of a possible 28, and no votes below 4th place. Jeter got 12 first place votes, 14 second place votes, one fourth-place vote and one sixth-place vote. The other first place vote that went to neither Jeter nor Morneau went to Morneau's teammate, AL Cy Young winner Santana.

The writers made a mistake, here. I could understand if Mauer won the award--he was the best hitter on the Twins; I could understand if Ortiz won the award, since he was probably the best hitter in the league, overall (the AL's best hitter, Cleveland DH Travis Hafner, suffered an injury-shortened season and a victory-challenged ballclub). Santana getting the nod would have burned a little--visions of the 1986 Clemens/Mattingly controversy in the air--but no one doubted that Santana (like Clemens 20 years ago) was at least the dominant pitcher in the league, by a wide margin.

Morneau is by all indications a nice guy. The first Canadian MVP winner (I think). He's someone I touted and stuck with on my fantasy team even when he was struggling to hit .200 in April. But he wasn't even the best player on his own team! Sure, the Twins came back to win the AL Central, and Morneau was a huge part of that resurgence, but remember: part of the reason they had to make a big comeback was because Morneau was killing the team early in the year. Morneau gets credited for the comeback, but not for the initial disappoinment.

I'm tempted to pull out the statistical measures--all the silly-sounding stats like WARP, VORP, EqA, and such--to show that Jeter deserved the award, and that Morneau was far from the next-most deserving candidate. But in a world where mainstream sportswriters would likely dismiss me as a stats-geek, I need to just point out that the MVP voters come off as the ones who are statistics-obsessed: they're simply obsessed with old-school statistics like RBI and home runs. Look back at the way they vote, and for all their talk of character and leadership and most valuable to their team, you'll see the "experts" are just a bunch of guys who look at homers and RBI.

Derek Jeter played a tougher position than Justin Morneau, on a better team. He hit better than Morneau did, just with fewer homers and ribbies. That's because he's a different kind of player than Morneau is, a kind of player who doesn't win the MVP award.

****
  • Given today's results, can we put to rest the legend of the East Coast bias? With bias like this, who needs enemies?
  • Maybe not tomorrow, but soon, the angle that's going to play out is that Jeter's "failure to support" Alex Rodriguez cost Jeter the MVP. Y'know, 'cause a leader supports his teammates. We have yet to see the end of the fallout from September's Sports Illustrated hatchet piece on Rodriguez. Unless someone finds a way to defuse this bomb, Jeter and A-Rod will go into 2007 with more reason to resent each other than ever.
  • This should really be its own column, but Mike Mussina is reportedly back in the fold, accepting a two-year $23 million contract to come back to the Yanks. Good timing, too, since the Mets are reportedly close to losing Tom Glavine, and might be trolling the avenues soon looking for more pitching. With the free agent market going crazy this winter, Mussina's deal seems fair in light of his 2006 performance.
  • In other news, Scott Proctor is being considered a candidate for the rotation. On the one hand, the Yankees have picked up a lot of righthanded middle relievers, which would free Proctor up for the rotation. On the other hand, this smells of a bluff by Cashman, which I will hereafter term a "Bubba" after Cashman's claims last winter that Bubba Crosby would be the Yankees' centerfielder in 2006. An example of usage: "The idea that Andy Phillips will be the starting first baseman in 2007 is a classic Bubba."
  • The Cubs sign Alfonso Soriano to an eight-year $136 million contract, and I wonder: does Jim Hendry realize that Soriano's birth year is 1976, not 1978 as it was when he first came up to the majors? The Cubs are betting that Soriano's going to be worth eight figures in 2014, at the age of 39; meanwhile, Hendry must be betting that he'll no longer be the GM of the Cubs when this contract starts to be a problem.

Thursday, November 16, 2006

I Love You, You're Great, You're Fired!

Managers of the Year have been announced, with the manager of the American League Champions, the Tigers' Jim Leyland, and former Florida Marlins manager Joe Girardi winning it in the National League. A few notes on the awards:

  • Even though Leyland was the prohibitive favorite to win the award, his margin of victory over second place finisher Jim Gardenhire was less than Girardi's was in the National League. Some voters must have been swayed by Leyland's team's collapse down the stretch, which saw Gardenhire's Twins pass Detroit for the division lead on the final day of the season. Some folks complain about the shifting standards ("Sure he was the best player, but was he the most valuable to his team?") for the MVP award, but the Manager of the year is just as nebulous. Leyland was favored both because his Tigers team was excellent this year, and because the team wasn't expected to be anywhere near this good. But to some, it didn't make sense to give the award to Leyland over the man who passed him on the last day of the season--despite the fact that the Twins were considered a much better bet to win the Central last season, and indeed were one of the most disappointing teams in the game prior to their resurgence in the second half.
  • In the National League, the guy that Girardi whomped was also someone who finished ahead of him in his own division--far ahead of him. There have always been whispers that Willie Randolph is, as a manager, an angry, bitter guy. Whenever the cameras showed Randolph during the playoffs, La Chiquita always remarked about how upset he looked, regardless of the score. This perception, if true, is a big contrast to how I remember Willie as a player--I seem to recall him as one of the smilingest guys around. If he was bitter before, I'm sure that losing the Manager of the Year to a guy whose team finished three games under .500, and 19 games behind his, will certainly give him something to be bitter about. Willie did an excellent job this season, and fell victim to the hyperbole about how bad the Marlins were supposed to be this season (some commentators had them pegged to be the worst team ever before the season).
  • Getting to Girardi, the interesting thing here is that the reigning NL Manager of the Year will start the season as a studio personality for the YES Network. He won the award despite a very low-class anti-marketing campaign against him by his former boss, Jeff Loria. When Girardi and Loria had their falling-out at midseason, Loria had people leaking to the press moves that Girardi had wanted to make but was overruled by the front office--every time in situations where the player Girardi would have benched or sent to the minors was successful, or the player Girardi favored was not. They tried to get the idea out there that the Marlins won in spite of Girardi, rather than because of him--and that message seems to have been recognized for what it was, sour grapes from a twit intent on firing his manager as soon as possible.
  • I can't recall a manager of the year, or even any top finisher, getting canned before he received his award. In a year in which no manager was fired in-season, not only is Girardi Manager of the Year without a team, but the guy who finished in third place in the AL was fired after the season (Ken Macha, formerly of the A's) the fourth place finisher was apparently this close to getting fired (our own Joe Torre) and the third place finisher in the NL left his team to go manage a division rival (Bruce Bochy, formerly of the Padres and now of the San Francisco Giants). That's a lot of upheaval for one year.

Tuesday, November 14, 2006

The One with All the Bad Puns

Going Postal in Beantown

Daisuke Matsuzaka has posted, and if you're a Yankee fan, you're not going to like where.

The Red Sox won the blind bidding for the Japanese ace with a whopping bid of $51 million. To put this in context, when Ichiro Suzuki was posted by the Oryx Blue Wave before the 2001 season, the winning bid was $13 million. The rumors going into the posting process on Matsuzaka was that the bidding would likely exceed $20 million, perhaps go as high as $30 million.

No one dreamed of a $51 million bid, because--if you take the bid process seriously--posting at that figure would make it virtually impossible to make a deal with Matsuzaka, who's a Scott Boras client. Let's say you stretched the barriers for a pitcher deal, and gave Matsuzaka six years (there's no indication that Boras is actually looking for a deal that long, given that his client is only 26), that's like tacking $8.5 million to each year of the deal. So signing a guy for $10 million per year over six years--Carl Pavano money--becomes paying a guy $18.5 million per year over those six seasons--Roger Clemens money. And $10 million per season is a low figure given Matsuzaka's expectation.

Matsuzaka figures by every account to be the real deal, but we're still talking about a guy who hasn't thrown a single pitch in the big leagues, who has had elbow trouble in the past, and who has thrown a lot of pitches per start over the past few years. A $100 million is a lot of money to risk, even for the Red Sox.

You'll notice above the modifier I put on the financials analysis, "if you take the bid process seriously". Something stinks about the Red Sox bid, and there are a couple of loopholes to how the bid process working, that might tell us where the stink is coming from. First, is the possibility of a kickback of a large portion of the posting fee back to the Red Sox as they negotiate with Matsuzaka. Rumor is that back in 2000, the Mariners paid only a fraction of Ichiro's posting fee, per a side deal with Oryx. Kickbacks make sense for the Japanese team because they get no part of the posting fee if the posted player doesn't sign with the top bidder. So it makes sense, if the U.S. club needs money to make a deal with the player work out, that the Japanese team figures that 50% or 30% of the posting fee is better than getting nothing.

Still, kickbacks make a mockery of the bidding process, and I'd imagine that some of the other bidders--including the one in the Bronx--will take some care to make sure the Sox actually pay every penny of that posting bid, and get none of it back.

The other key issue, is something I mentioned above. If the winning bidder doesn't agree to a deal with Matsuzaka in 30 days, they lose nothing. From the Red Sox point of view, Matsuzaka presented two problems: a) the Sox need starting pitching, so they're interested in him, and b) the Yankees need starting pitching, so the Sox are interested in the Yankees not getting him. If you think about it in that context, the Red Sox almost had no alternative but to put in a crazy, huge bid, like they did.

The only way the Red Sox could be sure that Matsuzaka doesn't wind up in pinstripes is by winning the bidding. If some other team won, they might sign Matsuzaka and trade him to the Yanks for prospects plus the posting cash. By overbidding, the Red Sox make sure that they have, at the very least, blocked the Yankees. If Matsuzaka accepts a lowball offer, or Seibu comes up with a good enough kickback, the Sox get the big-shot pitcher of this off-season; if not, they lose nothing, and keep the Yankees from being able to negotiate with him.

Good faith negotiation is purely optional. It stinks, but it's the smart play.

Jaret Wright For the Birds

Since last we spoke, the Yankees ended their two-year association with Jaret Wright, eating the $4 million sunk cost they would have had to pay had they voided his contract, and sending Wright to the Orioles for yet another young righthanded reliever.

This time, the Yanks get Chris Britton, a rookie in 2006 who turns 24 in December. Britton had a pretty good season for the Orioles--3.35 ERA in 53 2/3 innings, with 10.6 adjusted runs prevented on the season. For context, that ARP number would have been third on the Yankee staff in 2006, behind Mariano Rivera (25.4) and Scott Proctor (21.3).

Nice job by the Yanks turning up something in return for Wright, a free agent mistake when he was signed away from the Braves in December, 2004. Wright re-joins O's pitching coach, Leo Mazzone--for whom he had his best season--and Baltimore gets a limited pitcher at a pretty nice price of $3 million. This could be a win-win all around.

Mets Shea Good-bye

The Mets announced yesterday that their new ballpark's naming rights had been sold to Citigroup, so the Metropolitans will play their future games at CitiField. If the new ballpark isn't an aesthetic upgrade on the Mets' current digs, or if there's a few losing seasons by the home team, CitiField could lend itself to some unfortunate and profane derivations.

I'm glad that--for the moment, at least--the Yanks have avoided all of this naming rights nonsense. Yes, it's a revenue stream, but one that's made so many ballparks generic--I sometimes have a hard time differentiating Petco from Safeco, PNC from PacBell, Great American from Comerica and U.S. Cellular. So far, the Yanks haven't gone for that revenue source, perhaps because the Yankee brand is so valuable to them.

Shea Stadium, named after William Shea, attorney, sports enthusiast, and political operator, was part of the Mets' history, going so far as threatening to start a third major league in order to prevail upon the National League and convince it to expand. Something will be lost when the Stadium bearing his name is given back to the giant parking lot in Flushing Meadow. Not because the building itself was any great shakes--in my humble opinion, Shea Stadium's ugly, warehouselike, and more than a little run down. It'll be a shame because one more distinctive thing about the Mets will have gone generic, the same way that the Mets' network, SNY, has a name you'd have a hard time picking out of a lineup.

Friday, November 10, 2006

So Long, Farewell, Auf Wiedersehen, Good-Bye...

The reign of the Iron Sheff is over, as Gary Sheffield is dealt to the Detroit Tigers for three pitching prospects. Everyone comes away happy--the Tigers needed more sluggerlyness, the Yankees add some more depth to their minor league pitching, and Sheffield even gets the two-year extension that he was looking for. All around, a win-win.

The guys acquired, are all righthanded pitchers, and two of them made last years Baseball America list of Detroit's top prospects. Humberto Sanchez, the #6 guy on that list, will be 24 next season. He was awesome at AA last season 5-3, 1.76 ERA, 86 K in 71 2/3 innings; then held his own at AAA, 5-3, 3.86 ERA, 43 K in 51 1/3 IP. Part of his performance drop as a Mud Hen has to do with the forearm/elbow strain that ended Sanchez's season in August. He's a big guy, for whom conditioning is a concern--but he has big-time stuff.

Kevin Wheelan, the #10 guy on BA's list, is a late convert to pitching, moving over from catcher when he was in college at Texas A & M. He'll be 23 in January, and he spent 2006 in high-A ball. Wheelan's been used as a minor league closer, and his repetoire consists of a mid-90s fastball and a wicked split finger. This season, he attempted to integrate a slider into the mix. Wheelan had a 2.67 ERA and 27 saves in the FSL, striking out 69 and walking 29 in 54 innings. The walks are deceptive--in the first half of the season, he had a wild streak in which he walked 20 in 22 1/3 innings, which skewed his season totals.

Anthony Claggett's another minor league reliever, sporting a 0.91 ERA in the Midwest League. Claggett's stuff is supposed to be average, but accentuated by a "deceptive" delivery. Not sure what that means, but his numbers show a substantial platoon split.

Suddenly, it seems, the Yankees are swimming in young pitching. Baseball America's list of top Yankees prospects was released this week, and eight of the top ten were righthanded pitchers (in order: Philip Hughes, Dellin Betances, Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, Chris Garcia, Tyler Clippard, J. Brent Cox, and Mark Melancon). Add some of the fringier Yanks prospects, like Jeff Karstens, Darrell Rasner, Jeff Marquez, Matt DeSalvo, Jose Veras and Steven White, and that's a lot of arms that the Yanks are holding in reserve. The rule of pitching prospects is "quality in quantity." Some of these guys are sure to fall by the wayside--among Wheedon, Melancon, Cox, Veras, and Brian Bruney, not all of them can possibly be "the heir to Mariano Rivera." But having depth increases the chance that one of them will pan out to step into those (HUGE!) shoes.

Right now, Hughes, Sanchez, and Clippard should make for a great AAA rotation, with Cox as their closer, in Scranton's first year of affiliation with the Yanks. At Trenton, we might see Wheelan and Claggett battling it out for relief innings in the bullpen, while the Yankees' second bumper crop, 2006 draftee starters Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy and closer Mark Melancon team up with 2004 high school draftee Chris Garcia at Tampa, and local product Dellin Betances follows at Charleston or perhaps even in the short-season league at Staten Island.

Sanchez, Wheelan and Claggett are a fine haul to bring back in return for Sheffield, a guy who'd lost his role on this team, had campaigned to be made a free agent, and whose contractual issues figured to be a distraction going forward. Despite some strong rhetoric earlier, I'll be a little sad to watch Sheff go. For all the side issues he brought to the table, he was a great hitter, never an easy out, and--despite his whininess--a consumate professional. Looking back at the 2004 and 2005 Yankees, if you had one at bat--say, man on second, one run down with two outs in the bottom of the ninth--was there any Yankee you'd rather have at the plate than Sheffield?

So I'm not so happy that Sheffield stays in the AL, and particularly not that he goes to a dangerous contender, the team that knocked the Yanks out of the playoffs this season. Still, given that the alternative was letting Sheffield go to the highest bidder for no return at all, I'm glad this deal is done. I'd really be wishing Sheff the best with his new team, if it weren't for the fact that the Yanks will be facing him, frequently and possibly in the playoffs again.

[Yeah, I know, I better hope La Chiquita doesn't read this entry...]

What I can say is vaya con Dios, Gary. It was a pleasure having you on my favorite team.

Wednesday, November 08, 2006

The Golden Threepeat

Luis Aparicio. Roy McMillan. Mark Belanger. Dave Concepcion. Ozzie Smith. Tony Fernandez. Barry Larkin. Omar Vizquel. Rey Ordonez. Derek Jeter.

Apologies for dredging up old news from last week, but Derek Jeter earned his third straight American League Gold Glove at shortstop--joining the other nine guys above as the only fellows to win three in a row in the 50-year history of the Gold Glove award. Let's put it another way: Jeter now has more gold gloves than Cal Ripken. Or Maury Wills. Or Alex Rodriguez.

For the first eight seasons of his career, most fielding statistics had Jeter as the one of, if not the, worst shortstops out there. The data--most of it, at least--says that over the last three seasons, Jeter has improved dramatically from his previous defensive level. That "dramatic improvement," was from horrible to average, perhaps a bit above. None of the metrics I've seen have actually placed Jeter as the best shortstop in the AL, or even in the top three, for the last three seasons.

Jeter, always a test case for the sabermetric point-of-view of defense, now takes things to the next level. All the other names in that first paragraph have legacies as elite defenders. When people look back at Jeter's defense, will they put Jeter on that same pedestal? Or will folks remember the ugly defensive early-career performance described by the stats? If it's the latter, will the gold gloves be at all relevant to future generations of baseball fans?

Those are not rhetorical questions. Feel free to speak up in the comments.

****

In other news, the Yankees are reported to be mulling a repurchase of 40% of the Houston Astros' pitching rotation, for one last pinstriped hurrah. It's an enticing idea, but I thought collusion rules were initially put in place to prevent a couple of players from coordinating their actions in signing with a team (for those who don't know, the collusion rules were a reaction to a joint holdout by Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale some forty years ago).?

****

Gary Sheffield gave the Yankees a list of places to which he'd rather be traded. Nice idea, Gary, better than "you trade for me and there will be trouble." But a bit irrelevant.

Let's put it this way. Lots of people I know make up these imaginary lists of "freebies"--that is, famous-type folks that their significant other would allow them to have a fling with if the opportunity were available. So, for example, the guy agrees that his wife could hook up with Brad Pitt if he came a-knockin' on the door, while the wife gives her husband the green light to get a little somethin'-somethin' from Jessica Alba, should they happen to be locked in an elevator together, or somesuch. The whole thing works because it's a ludicrous fantasy--presumably Salma Hayek doesn't go around the country looking up all the guys (and heck, probably at least some girls) that have put her on their lists. She doesn't care.

The Yanks shouldn't care about what's on Gary Sheffield's list. Gary would accept a trade to the White Sox? That's nice. You say the Royals are offering Alex Gordon? Get used to scenic Kaufman Stadium, Gary!

[By the way, lest I start getting hatemail from the Midwest Sabermetric Mafia, not serious about Gordon. I'd happily take Billy Butler in his stead. OK, ok, seriously, Andrew Sisco and Ambiorix Burgos would be plenty, for sure.]

Thursday, November 02, 2006

Benching Donnie Baseball

It's been a quiet week so far, with the big news coming in the form of a coaching shuffle that sends Lee Mazzilli packing, shifts Don Mattingly from his present job as hitting coach to the more nebulous role of "bench coach," and calls for a new batting coach--the name that's heard most and loudest is AAA Columbus hitting coach Kevin Long--taking over for Donnie Baseball.

Most of the news coverage has been focused on what Mattingly being appointed bench coach says about the Yankee line of succession. It's a fuzzy position--even fuzzy by coaching standards--but the bench coach is considered a consiglieri to the manager, a strategic assistant, the guy who manages the team if the manager gets ejected. As such, the bench coach position is considered by some a place where bright young managerial prospects go to apprentice, particularly if they're high-profile types who likely aren't willing to go manage in the bus leagues for a few seasons. More on this in a moment.

I can't remember when the "bench coach" came into vogue...I really don't remember anyone holding that position with the Yankees prior to "the Gerbil" Don Zimmer. Zim wasn't really someone looking for a managerial job at that point, and his managerial style was a good contrast to that of the manager, Joe Torre--much more openly temperamental than Torre, a more aggressive field manager, more outspoken. It often seemed like they worked the umpires together, with Torre playing good cop to Zimmer's bad cop. If Joe was the calm father figure of the Yankee clubhouse, ol' Popeye was the crazy uncle your mother disapproves of you hanging out with. He and Joe were a good match.

Since Zimmer was forced out by Steinbrenner, we haven't seen such a match again. In 2004, Willie Randolph took over after a tempestuous tenure as third base coach and primary media-anointed manager-in-waiting. I say Willie's time coaching third was tempestuous because of the gale force turbulence Randolph created with his constantly-windmilling arm. Randolph had the good fortune that no matter how many baserunners he sent to their doom, it didn't seem to cost the Yankees that many games when it counted. Still, Willie didn't seem to light the world on fire in the bench coach job, and it was around this time the rumors started that Don Mattingly was the preferred successor to Torre. After Randolph went off to the Mets, former catcher/broadcaster Joe Girardi took over the bench coach job. This inspired to a lot of talk about what a great manager Girardi would make some day, but didn't otherwise seem to have a big impact on the way the Yankees were managed or played on the field.

When Girardi went to the Marlins (and, indeed, did a good job managing there) Mazzili was brought on, perhaps in the hope that having another "wartime consiglieri" with managing experience would bring back some of that Don Zimmer magic. No dice. Mazz may have had the "vocal" and "temperamental" stuff down, but he didn't have Zim's strategic brain, or his 1,500+ games of managerial experience.

So now Mazzilli goes, and is replaced by Mattingly. I don't know where this is going to help the ballclub much, other than giving Mattingly some more manager-type experience. Torre, Zimmer, and former pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre were of a different generation from the fellows who have come after. When Zimmer came to Torre with advice, he was coming from the perspective of someone who was playing the game when Torre was just starting high school, and who had more managerial success than Torre had in his pre-Yankees days. That's bringing something to the table. If Mattingly has suggestions, will it play out the same way? Will Mattingly, always a quiet leader during his playing days, even speak up if he has any suggestions? The mind boggles.

And while this has been termed a "promotion," you have to wonder if Mattingly's new role isn't a tacit criticism of the job he did in his old role, as hitting coach for the team that just got shut down in the playoffs, rather than as an endorsement of his managerial bonafides. The Yanks hit well during the Mattingly's tenure, and he does get credit for the development of Robbie Cano and Melky Cabrera. Still, by and large Donnie Baseball had a huge crop of baseball talent to work with, and Mattingly certainly didn't seem able to reach the Yankees' key player, Alex Rodriguez, this season. Whoever the new batting coach is, that's job number one (job number two being to work on the continued development of Cabrera, and job number three being to make sure the coffee in the dugout is always fresh; OK, so I made one of those up).

This is a story to keep an eye on in Spring Training.

Monday, October 30, 2006

Weighing Your Options

Now that the World Series is over, we're now in that awkward first stage of the off-season, where teams and players (mostly teams) have to make decisions about contract options, and where prospective free agents actually declare themselves available on the open market.

Today we're talking about contract options. Some Yankees have already seen their options become guaranteed--in 2006, both Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera were able to meet playing time goals that guaranteed them contracts in 2007. The following Yannkees have options that the club has to make a decision about (all numbers courtesy of the Unofficial MLB page) sometime soon:

Mike Mussina (17MM in 2007 or $1.5MM buyout) -- This is actually more than one decision. It's a no-brainer to say that the Yanks should take that $1.5MM buyout. Mussina was a very good pitcher in 2006, but he wasn't $17MM worth of good (actually, to be realistic, you have to think of it as $15.5MM good--the value of the contract less the value of the buyout, which is a sunk cost the team will pay if they choose to keep the player or not). The question is whether--and at what cost--to re-sign Mussina once you've told him that you don't think he's a $15.5MM pitcher. Is he still worth eight digits to the Yanks? Perhaps. How many years do you give him? Mussina has previously said he wants to pitch three or four more years to reach some milestones. But does it make sense to guarantee Mussina--who turns 38 in December--a major league contract until the age of 41 or 42? It's seldom wise to give any pitcher four years, but two could definitely be in the cards, with an option for a third. You get that deal, at $7-8MM per year (Kris Benson Money(tm)), it might be an acceptable risk. If we crawl over $10MM per year, or guarantee a third year, not so much so.

Gary Sheffield (Option for $13MM, no buyout) -- Sheff's already agitating for a multi-year deal, which is a reaction to the rumor that the Yankees will pick up this option, just to trade him. We've heard this stuff before--almost from the moment that he agreed to his current Yankees contract, Sheffield was already complaining that he wanted to get interest on the deferred money. It's a mistake to take Sheffield's negotiating postures as having an effect on the value of his bat to the team. For all of Sheffield's threats that he'll make things miserable for a team that doesn't [insert here: re-negotiate his contract, give him an extension, cut him loose in free agency] he's never carried through on those threats. Coming off an injury, I doubt that Sheff could get more than $13MM yearly salary for 2007. I say call his bluff. If he decides to go Operation Shutdown on the Yankees, they lose nothing. If the Yankees keep him, and he hits the way he can when he's looking for a new contract, then it's good. If he induces the Angels, Phillies, or Braves to step up and offer something of value--and he should be attractive to all three clubs--then you're ahead of the game.

Then again, it's easy for me to say--I'm not the one putting up the $13MM.

Jaret Wright ("Option" for $7MM, $4MM buyout, player option to void the contract) -- Technically, this is most often referred to as a "right to void" the contract, which was activated by Wright spending a certain amount of time on the DL in 2005 with a bad shoulder. The thing to remember (unless Wright goes nuts and voids the contract himself) is that all that's at stake for the Yanks is $3MM--the $4MM "buyout" is a sunk cost, money that's gone no matter what the Yanks do. So the question the Yanks have to ask themselves is: is Jaret Wright worth $3MM--and maybe some B-grade trade swag--to anyone in the majors, including the Yankees. I think the answer is yes. Let's put it another way--the performance Wright put in last season was worth about $5 million on the open market. I'd suspect that Orioles might be in the market to get Wright back under Leo Mazzone's win, and $3MM is small money for someone who's not actively waiver bait.

Saturday, October 28, 2006

Game Over, 2006: Five and Out

So another baseball season ends, this time with the St. Louis Cardinals celebrating their World Series victory in their home park. With a 83-78 regular season record, the 2006 Cardinals become possibly the "worst" team ever to win a championship. The previous low regular season record for a championship team was the 1987 Twins, at 85-77. Interestingly, that Twins team also rolled over a "superior" Tigers team to make the postseason.

Both of the World Series teams backed into the playoffs, becoming huge underdogs. The Cardinals almost featured a historic collapse, as a late charge by the Houston Astros almost dropped them out of the playoffs altogether. The Tigers lost AL Central on the last day of the season, getting whupped by the Kansas City Royals--fortunately for them, they had the social safety net of the Wild Card. Both teams were expected to lose their first round matchups, and both won handily; the Cardinals were clear underdogs to the New York Mets, and their pitchers caught fire during that series, holding down one of the strongest offenses in the National League.

The Tigers cruised to seven straight postseason wins on the strength of their three weapons: pitching, defense, and the home run (not necessarily in that order). The Tigers relievers won game two of their ALDS, the starters won games three and four; they outhomered the "mighty" Yankee lineup, 6-4; and they only made two errors to the Yankees' six. In the ALCS, the Tigers outhomered the A's, 7-4; the A's only scored nine runs in four losses.

I was cheering for the Tigers in this Series, if only for La Chiquita and her family, who are from Detroit. But the Cardinals were able to keep the Tigers in the ballpark, and the Tigers' defense abandoned them. Pitcher fielding, one of the neglected areas of the game, absolutely killed the Tigers in this series. It seemed like the Detroit pitchers couldn't pick up a comebacker without something bad happening, and a run scoring. Brandon Inge, one of the best thirdbasemen in the AL, made critical throwing errors (See, Alex? You're not the only one.) A fairy-tale run ended in an ugly way, one which I hope doesn't embitter Tigers fans past seeing that their team had a great, great season.

So congratulations to the St. Louis Cardinals, and their fans. While being the "worst" world champion ever is a dubious distinction, it calls to mind a joke. What do they call the guy who graduates last in his class in medical school?

They call him "Doctor." Flags fly forever.

****

What was more frustrating: watching Jeff Weaver pitch eight good innings in a World Series clincher, or watching Kenny Rogers suddenly become untouchable (if sticky to the touch) this postseason? On the one hand, the Yanks won the World Series in which Rogers was goofing things up, while Weaver cost the Yanks a critical game of the 2003 WS (edge, Weaver). On the other hand, Rogers' ace pitching helped eliminate the Yankees; while Weaver's sudden effectiveness helped eliminate the Mets (edge, Rogers). I'd like to hear from all you good folks out there--what's the woist?

This World Championship assures that not only will Tony LaRussa make it into the Hall of Fame, he may well be canonized, as well. That's going to be annoying. It'll be telling of how the members of the BWAA actually submit their votes, to see how LaRussa does in the Manager of the Year award. If LaRussa wins (or even finishes a strong second), you can be sure that all that stuff about ballots being cast before the end of the season is bunk. Supposedly, there's a fair amount of leeway as to when the ballots are actually received, although voters are supposed to only take the regular season into consideration.

Changing gears, from Sherman's column in the Post (hat tip to Repoz at BTF): "And once Pavano's body is in better shape, [agent Gregg] Clifton said, the pitcher can begin dialogues to work on repairing his reputation." Uh, good luck with that.

I mentioned the 1987 Twins earlier. A member of that championship team, and former Yankee, knuckleballer Joe Niekro passed away yesterday. He had suffered a brain aneurysm the day before. Seeing Peter Gammons on the field at the World Series, just months after Gammons suffered an aneurysm of his own, makes you think about how lucky the ESPN analyst is. Our condolences go out to Joe's family, including his brother, Hall of Famer and ex-Yankee Phil Niekro, and his son, current San Francisco Giant Lance Niekro.

We'll be back this week with more wrapup on the Yankee season, and a few non-baseball items.

Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Fight Night

I don't usually do politics here, but tonight, before the game, something interesting is going to happen. Regardless of your political stripe, I think that if you're in New York--or even anywhere where you can get a feed to the New York One news station, you should tune in.

This election cycle has been a big snoozefest in New York State. The Governor's race seems sealed up, with Democrat Eliot Spitzer capturing the Governor's mansion after 12 years of Republican rule under George Pataki. Hillary Clinton's opponent for the Senate has resorted to calling her ugly, which we suppose will be followed by "...and your mother dresses you funny!" The one Republican who was expected to run a competitive race, onetime senatorial candidate, Jeannine Pirro, now running for Attorney General against Andrew Cuomo (son of the former Governor), seems hopelessly sunk by reports that she called now-convict Bernie Kerik about illegally wiretapping her husband's yacht, and that it was Kerik who sounded more conscientious about not breaking the law.

But today's interesting thing is a race that was not supposed to be competitive, the race for New York State Comptroller. The Comptroller is basically the fiscal watchdog of the state, conducting audits and investigations and making sure that the state isn't losing money to fraud and waste. It's probably the third-highest elected office in the state.

Last winter, at an event honoring an Irish talk radio host, I meet a fellow in a bow tie who introduces himself and shakes my hand. As usual, it's a loud room and I don't catch his name, quick exchange of vague pleasantries and I'm on to the next person in the room. Later on my boss catches up with me and says, "I see you met Chris Callaghan."

The name was familiar. One of the things I do is manage the firm email account, which means wading through spam, particularly from political candidates and wannabes.

"Guy who wants to run for Comptroller?" I asked.
"Yeah."
"You serious?"

There's something about politicians. When you catch them among civilians, they usually stand out. Almost invariably, they're alpha dogs. They carry themselves like they know that they're someone important, and they expect deference from you. The guy that I met had none of that. He looked like someone's accountant---which is pretty much what he is.

I filed J. Christopher Callaghan away under "Sacrificial Lambs" and went along my merry way.

You see, I'd also met the incumbent, Alan Hevesi. He is an alpha dog. When I was in law school, we hosted a debate for the New York City Comptroller's office, which was basically uncontested--so this was a pro forma contest of showing up against the Republican challenger as well as "candidates" from fringier climes like the Communist Party, the Right to Life Party, and the Libertarians. Hevesi won in a walk, as he did when he ran for the state Comptroller's position. He's got a good, professorial tone to him that's just a little bit wonky for discussing budgetary issues, but when someone gets out of line he slips on his Queens accent, and sounds like someone who could get in a good shot or two in a fistfight.

A few weeks ago, however, Hevesi's cakewalk started to resemble a street fight, somewhat. You see, Callaghan did what a good comptroller's supposed to do, and investigated some waste and fraud...by the incumbent Comptroller. Turns out Hevesi has had a couple of state employees whose major work duties have been to drive his wife around. That led to an Ethics probe that recently found that Hevesi probably violated the Public Officials Law.

As the controversy brewed, the two candidates' standings in the polls didn't change all that substantially. Callaghan has only a very small fraction of the money that Hevesi has in his war chest, not enough to do any real advertising. Callaghan has no name recognition, and most voters couldn't pick his face out of a line-up, unless you clued them in about the bow tie. And Hevesi refused to debate him, prefering to coast to victory rather than have to meet Callaghan face-to-face to discuss the issues, and explain his chaufeur controversy.

Until tonight at 7:00 PM, that is.

Forget party politics--this is one of the most interesting political science experiments, out there. Can a guy who came out of nowhere, who has no money, and who doesn't look like your average politician win political office? Will Callaghan fumble the ball when he finally gets to take the big stage against a smoother, more politically-experienced opponent? Does it even matter? Does anyone decide how to vote based on debates?

Even more fascinating, I have no idea what Hevesi is going to say tonight, or for that matter, why he suddenly opted to debate after all. Maybe he dug up some dirt that allows him to go on the offensive. Maybe he'll offer a tearful apology; or he could angrily accuse his critics of being a "vast right-wing conspiracy." Anything could happen.

It should make for good TV. Here's hoping it makes for good government.

Monday, October 23, 2006

One Powerful Clump of Dirt...

So the big thing about last night's World Series game, where the Tigers tied the Series at one apiece, was that Kenny Rogers was spotted with a dark stain on his left hand, which he dismissed as a "clump of dirt" that was somehow stuck to his pitching hand.

Riiight.

ESPN reports that this isn't the first time this post-season that Rogers has had this stain on his hand. Does this mean that the Tigers' postseason run, which has been based in large part on the fact that Rogers has been untouchable in the playoffs, is tainted?

More importantly, why doesn't anyone seem to care?

Yesterday, at the book signing for our friend Mark Swartz's new book, H2O, I told someone that I write about baseball and the first reaction was "what do you think about steroids?" I said that one of the few constants about athletics is that everyone wants an advantage, and will do whatever they think will work to get a leg up on the other guy. Was that way in the day of Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, straight on through to Barry Bonds.

I've never understood why some cheating drives people crazier than others. No one got too worked up over Gaylord Perry loading up the ball, no one gets too worked up over the fact that Whitey Ford admits to scuffing the ball. So I guess the reaction to Kenny's "clump of dirt" isn't surprising. It's like the last Summer Olympics, I remember one of the swimmers, a Japanese guy (IIRC), going through a turn in one of the events where the swimmers had to do different strokes each time across the pool. He goes through the turn, and one of the announcers notes, calmly "That's an illegal dolphin kick." That was all. Didn't mention it again, no controversy developed over that in a festival of competitions where everything seems to cause controversy.

It was no big deal, I guess. Not like he tested positive for nandrolone, or (gasp!) cannabis, or anything. Just an illegal maneuver that no one other than the announcer spoke up about, that's all.

In this morning's New York Times, muckraker Selena Roberts was complaining about "pampered" Albert Pujols's nasty disposition, and contrasting that to the belle of the World Series Ball, Kenny Rogers. Prior to Pujols making some tepid comments about Tom Glavine, I don't recall anybody complaining about his "dour" disposition; but contrasting that with man of the people Kenny Rogers whose curveball "channels the energy of the crowd" is the height of hypocrisy.

I guess if A-Rod wants to win over the press, he better learn to throw a spitter.

Sunday, October 22, 2006

World Series Diary

Over at Baseball Prospectus, they have the running Diary I did of Game one of the World Series. It's a pay article (don't complain, you should be subscribing to Baseball Prospectus anyway), but here's a taste, with my take on the big controversial play of the game:

9:39: BPer Neil deMause nominates "Who would you say is the most complex character on Saved by the Bell?" for dumbest conversation topic of the World Series. Dumbest conversation topic yet, is all I have to add. I was kind of hoping that Joe Buck would turn the conversation to Screech’s porn tape--Bill Simmons’ head would have exploded, for certain.

9:41: Pujols, on first with a walk, goes first-to-third on a bad pickoff throw by Verlander. Have to wonder if a more experienced first baseman than Guillen might have been able to control the damage on that throw. A Jim Edmonds single scores Pujols, and Scott Rolen follows with a ground-rule double to send Verlander to the showers.

9:49: With Jason Grilli on the mound, a ball is hit to Inge, who is playing in. Inge throws wide to Ivan Rodriguez, and then collides, in foul territory by the third base coaches’ box, with Scott Rolen, who took a wide turn around third. The play continues, with Rolen going home and being tagged out easily. However, obstruction is called on Inge, so Rolen scores.

I get the call, but it's kind of hard to swallow, since Inge was well out of the base path, with his back to the runner, so he couldn’t have seen Rolen or expected to be in Rolen's way. I guess the message here is that it’s the fielder's job to make sure he stays the heck out of the runner’s way, regardless of what one should expect. The only safe place for Inge to stand after that play would be on the infield grass, because then Rolen couldn’t run him over without being automatically called out for running inside the base line.


What are you guys thinking about the World Serious? Are you following it at all?

Friday, October 20, 2006

MidWest Series

Back in the 80s, this happened often. In 1982, the Brewers battled the Cardinals in the World Serious, in 1985, you had the Royals and the Cards, in 1987, you had the Twins and the Cards. Since '87, the closest we've come to having two middle-American teams in the Series was last year, when the midwestern Chicago White Sox battled the southwestern Houston Astros.

That's close, but no cigar.

This year, it will be the most embattled city in the midwest, Detroit, against the St. Louis Cardinals, who banished the Mets in shocking fashion last night, 3-1. The look on Mets fans faces in that stadium last night was pure gut punch--they were certain their team was going to win, and the disappointment was profound when the Mets blew chance after chance to score despite good pitching from Oliver Perez and a great fielding play by Endy Chavez keeping them in the game. The game ended in a way that was simultaneously dramatic and anticlimactic--with the bases loaded, two outs, and Carlos Beltran at the plate, getting struck out on three pitches, the last one an amazing yakker that he took for the strikeout.

I'm of mixed feelings about the NLCS. As a Yankee fan, the Cardinals' victory does make my life a little bit easier. Nonetheless, I take no pleasure in the Mets' loss, and I have to admit that I was rooting a little bit for some of the Mets players--mainly Oliver Perez, who's a favorite of mine from his big season in Pittsburgh, but also John Valentin and Julio Franco.

But now, all that's left to say to Willie Randolph's crew is that it was a real nice run. See you next year. And on to Detroit.

Monday, October 16, 2006

Muttering Under My Breath

I sat down at the computer and tried to write an entry here a couple of times. After all, there's plenty to discuss about the Yankees, their postseason loss, what the off-season may bring. But I started to write under the title "Postseason Postmortem" (as has been my habit) and it seemed...inappropriate after what happened last week. So, barring some serious team news, I'm just going to hold off writing about the Yankees for a while, until after the World Series, most likely. It's a long postseason, and there will be time to pass out team grades, break down the LDS loss, check out the free agent market, all that good stuff.

****
  • One of my justifications for not writing up the Yankees' postseason wrapup right away is that the other New York team's fortunes will figure in how this off-season breaks down. For all the talk of the Mets owning the town, now, I think that the Mets will have to win at least one more round of playoffs to have a real impact. Not trash talk, here, but just harsh reality--how many people really notice the team that lost the LCS?
  • By the way, why is it that I only hear this "own the town" stuff from Mets fans? Back in the '80s and '90s, you couldn't shake a tree without having a Mets fan sneer at you that New York is a National League town. As if there was a citywide referendum going on about the designated hitter or something. Then, the Yankees got hot, and for eleven years, that talk was shut down cold. You heard murmurs in 1999 and 2000, which were pretty much squashed dead by the Subway World Series.
  • Still, when the Yankees drew 4 million fans to the Bronx this season, I didn't hear anyone talking about the increase as a matter of the Yanks "owning the town." I'll go a step further and say that, as a Yankee fan, I really don't want any Mets fans jumping the bandwagon for my team. Stay in Shea, please.
  • Speak up, Yankee fans, does anyone really care about whether this is an AL town or an NL town?
  • Still, this Mets team is pretty well set up whichever way you paint it. They have gotten one series farther than the Yanks so far, and the injuries to Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez mean that the pressure to win it all is off them, somewhat. For the same reason, if they go all the way, and beat the Tigers in the World Series, it will be huge. The kind of thing that puts even more pressure on the Yanks to make some noise this winter, sign Barry Zito (boo!) or Daisuke Matsuzaka (yeah!).
  • You can see that I'm slightly unmoored from reality in a world where Kenny Rogers suddenly can't lose in the postseason.
  • Suddenly, Kenny Rogers is a team leader. The wise old hand that helped those wild kids in Detroit learn how to win. Last year, he was pond scum who beat down on cameramen, and who'd been labeled an undesirable in every major league clubhouse where he'd ever set up residence.
  • This is why I take talk of "chemistry" with a grain of salt. It could be that Kenny Rogers suddenly transformed himself into a team leader. Could be that he's been a leader all along and we simply didn't know it. You just can't tell, and that's the point. I doubt we'd be talking about Rogers's leadership skills if the Yankees had lit him up in the first round, though.

Wednesday, October 11, 2006

There Are No Words...

Mid-afternoon, I got a message from my brother, saying that a small airplane had crashed into a building on Manhattan's East Side, that they didn't think it was terrorism, that it didn't look like very many people were killed, but that my evening commute might be affected.

Then the emails started coming in on Baseball Prospectus's internal mailing list. The messages said it was Cory Lidle's plane that crashed into that building. Lidle is presumed dead.

That set my head spinning, and my heart somewhat numb. Lidle was a guy who had just joined the team, so he wasn't someone we'd gotten attached to. Lidle was a free agent after the season, and I'd assumed that Lidle's ineffective middle relief stint in Detroit this weekend was the last we'd seen of Cory Lidle in pinstripes. This, particularly after Lidle was the one Yankee to speak ill of Joe Torre when the Joe Must Go! bandwagon was at its fullest.

Lidle had been a player who moved around a lot--he was on his seventh team in a major league career that started with the Mets in 1997--and he hadn't made too many friends at his last stop, in Philadelphia, where he was strongly criticized by Arthur Rhodes after he was traded to the Yankees along with Bobby Abreu. Now, all of that seems so irrelevant.

Our condolences go out to Mr. Lidle's family, as well as the people (and the families of those) who have been injured, killed, or left homeless by this tragedy.

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

No Regime Change and other Headlines

Topping the news today is the announcement that, despite the hype and agitatin' by members of the Yankee front office, the media, Joe Torre is goin' nowhere. Here's a link:

Torre Says He Is Staying With Yankees (AP)

The more I thought about Piniella, or Girardi, or Showalter coming back to manage the Yanks, the more I wondered if it wasn't worthwhile to get one more year out of Joe. First of all, I really want Torre to retire from managing as a Yankee. Few things would be more depressing than Joe Torre coming back to beat the Yankees with another team. Second of all, all the candidates to replace Joe are flawed--Piniella might light a fire under the Yanks' behinds, but he'd be just as likely to slag Chien Ming Wang's and Phil Hughes's arms. Ditto two times for Dusty Baker. Showalter's a control freak who would polarize the clubhouse; and Girardi has the same micromanaging reputation, plus he's been billed as Joe Torre, Jr.--which would probably obviate the purpose of getting rid of the original Joe Torre.

Now that Torre's coming back, he gets his hands on the biggest job he's had since 1996. Can this team function again, without some big names walking out the door? Is Torre the peacemaker, or does his problem with the number eight batter, Alex Rodriguez, qualify as a personal feud?

I'm sure we'll be discussing this all winter.

In less happy news, the Big Unit's gonna have to go under the knife, joining Jason Giambi and Andy Phillips among the Yankees who are going to use their early vacation to get that out of the way:

Johnson Likely To Need Surgery on Herniated Disc (ESPN News Svcs)

Better now than in Spring Training, I guess. There go all illusions that we'll see the Diamondbacks-vintage Randy Johnson during his time in pinstripes, as if anyone was still holding out hope for that.

In related news, the hottest international pitcher out there could be headed to the Show:

Prized Pitcher Matsuzaka Given OK to Pitch in MLB
(AP)

Matsuzaka is 26 years old, and he showed some nice stuff in the WBC. In the Bronx, his first name might as well be "Prized." The Yankee pitching staff has featured some pretty serious duds over the past couple of years, and back surgery for the Unit suggests there might be even less depth next season.

In case you're confused about the posting process--that's the way which non-free agent pitchers in Japan get offered to Major League clubs--the good folks over at USS Mariner have put together a handy primer on the posting process. Long story short? Posting is the method by which the Mariners acquired Ichiro Suzuki--a blind bid to the Japanese team that controls the player's rights, for the exclusive right to negotiate a contract with the player. I can't recall if this was also the way the Padres got Irabu. Other Japanese players have come to the U.S. simply by waiting until they are free agents in Japan, then signing with an MLB team. That free agent route is how the Yanks acquired Hideki Matsui, and how the Mets got Kaz Matsui. Here's hoping the Yanks bid high--what's the use of eating all the crap that Yankee fans have been eating for the few days if our team doesn't leverage its financial advantage to the hilt?

Sunday, October 08, 2006

Postmortem, Part II: Word Around Town

Here's some links and comments:

As we implied last time, the Daily News indicates that Joe Torre's gone, and that Lou Piniella is the likely candidate to take his place. Here are a few quotes:

From Torre Now an Average Joe (T.J. Quinn):

Several sources within the organization said there has been a widespread feeling that Torre has been increasingly disengaged from the team, and that his failure to get out of the division series yet again, despite his autonomy, is more than Steinbrenner can stand

...

Members of the organization now speak of a Torre who they think is distracted by his outside interests, his family, his Safe at Home Foundation. All are admirable pursuits, but a Yankee's only mandate is to shave frequently and win constantly. When Torre took over the team in 1996, sources said, he was a manager and little else.

From Piniella Looms Over Joe (Anthony McSparron):

Now, with the Yankees reeling after being eliminated yesterday by the upstart Tigers in the division series, it's conceivable that Piniella will get the chance to show Steinbrenner how he'd manage The Boss' beloved, $200 million team. A second straight first-round failure has jeopardized Joe Torre's job and Piniella is a likely replacement.

Steinbrenner has privately said for years that the biggest mistake he ever made was letting Piniella go. He's waited nearly 20 years, during which time Piniella managed the Reds, Mariners and Devil Rays, for the chance to bring him back.

Tim Marchman, who's a must-read at the New York Sun (now available online without a subscription) thinks that it's time for Torre to leave, but disagrees as to the choice of replacement:

Still, he has to go. He's been with the Yankees for 11 years now, and that's a long time to manage in New York. He's not a failure, and any movement to paint him as one over the next few days will be stupid — the team may not have won a World Series since Bill Clinton was president, but they've won two pennants, developed some great young talent, and been consistently excellent over the last six years, often in quite trying circumstances. (The rest of the country and Mets Nation weeps salty tears for those trying circumstances, of course, but losing your starting outfield is never fun.) If he's a failure, so are Bobby Cox and Tony LaRussa.

Not being a failure doesn't make him a success, though, and it's his handling of Rodriguez that really marks the difference between why he should stay and why he should go. Torre has never been much of a strategist or tactician — his main strength has always been his ability to manage the egos of players and put them in position to succeed. He not only hasn't done that with Rodriguez, he's brutally humiliated him, first by participating in the shameful and repulsive team hit job on the embattled third baseman that ran in Sports Illustrated last month, and then by batting him eighth in a playoff elimination game. No matter how badly Rodriguez was hitting, he wasn't hitting any worse than anyone else on the team. Singling him out that way made him the story, rather than the collective failure. It was a crass move and it didn't work.

...

I don't know [who the next Yankees manager should be], but it's not Lou Piniella. This irrelevant blowhard couldn't win when he had Rodriguez, Johnson, Ken Griffey and Edgar Martinez in their primes and a farm system coughing up the likes of Jason Varitek, Derek Lowe, and Mike Hampton. He couldn't win in the playoffs with a team that won 116 regular season games. He not only couldn't do anything in Tampa Bay with a collection of young talent generally regarded as the best in baseball, but he spent his entire time there groaning about the unfairness of having to play a lot of prospects, as if he'd gone there under the impression he'd be managing a $120 million team. He's a total fraud. Billy Martin or Joe McCarthy would be better options.

Whoever replaces Torre, it should be someone young and someone with an idea or two in his head. The Yankees are in the process of managing a transition; Mariano Rivera and Jorge Posada and even Derek Jeter are not going to be Yankees forever. Whatever the team decides to do, the last thing they need to do is bring in some fossil with grand designs of riding a dead horse to World Series victory. Bring in someone who understands that Chien-Ming Wang, Robinson Cano, and Phillip Hughes are right now the three most important players on the team, not someone who thinks that by yelling at people he can revive the ghosts of 1996. That time is over; it has been for years.

Not sure that I agree with Marchman's take on Piniella (although I worry about Lou's handling of pitchers and youngsters). The Devil Rays didn't have the best young talent in baseball--not on the major league level, at least--while Sweet Lou was around. Also, I think that the next manager, be it today, tomorrow, whenever, should show some contrast to Torre's laid-back, player-friendly managing style. But I think that Tim's dead-on in his argument as to why Torre should be gone. Joe's handling of the A-Rod issue showed him to be part of the problem, not part of the solution, and the decision to bat Alex eighth in Game 4 was simply a stunning distraction. Then again, so was the decision to go into the playoffs with a lineup that he'd never tried in the regular season--including a guy who was converted to first base in the last three weeks of the season.

Journal News beat writer Pete Abraham writes, in his excellent LoHud Yankees Blog, that the theoretical "Torre-fired-Piniella-hired" scenario would indicate that the Yanks would go from being Derek Jeter's team to being A-Rod's team. Pete rightly notes that Piniella is an A-Rod partisan (having been Alex's first manager in Seattle), which would probably indicate that if Lou's in, A-Rod won't be on his way out.

I don't know that the Joe Torre Era should be over. There's no shame in losing to the Tigers, and it isn't Joe Torre's fault, for example, that Randy Johnson suddenly turned into a broken-down old man. Still, there is the point of view that when you fall beneath your goals, you can stand a change from the guy who's been here for the last eleven years, no matter how good he's been over that time.

...And Just Like That, It's Over

Goodbye, Yankees 2006.

It happened quickly. As Brother Joe said in his column on Friday, at one point during Thursday's afternoon makeup game in the Bronx, it looked like the Tigers were DOA, that they "shouldn't even make the Yankees make the trip to Detroit."

Three days later, the Detroit Tigers are dripping with champagne, and (rumor is) the Joe Torre Era is over. ALDS Game 4 was a total beatdown, far worse than the 8-3 final sounds. The Tigers got on the board with power--homers by Magglio Ordonez and Craig Monroe off starter Jaret Wright--then scored an unearned run in the third inning on a Alex Rodriguez throwing error (extra credit to Gary Sheffield at first, since an experienced firstbaseman could have saved that throw), a mental-error bloop single that went over Robinson Cano's head, and a grounder that Wright himself should have fielded, all in the .

Cory Lidle got Wright out of a jam in the third, but got himself into trouble by throwing batting practice pitches in the fifth, and gave up another three runs. At this point it was 7-0, and Tigers starter Jeremy Bonderman was pitching a perfect game. Cano got a hit in the sixth to end the no-hitter, and the Yanks scraped up a run in the seventh, and a couple more meaningless ones in the ninth, but the postseason was over. The Tigers advance to play the A's. The Mets advance to face the winner of the Cardinals/Padres series. The Yanks go home, to a winter of recrimination.

I'm pissed off that I let this team seduce me. The "great" Yankee lineup scored six runs over the last three games, and they played Game 4 like a team that had lost already. As predicted, Randy Johnson's inability to hold the Tigers was the deciding factor in the series.

I'm too upset to go on about this now. More later...

Friday, October 06, 2006

ALDS Game 3: Tigers 6, Yankees 0

Missed one, I know. Never quite caught up with Thursday's 4-3 loss, except to know that the rainout without rain seems to have destroyed any semblance of momentum the Yankees might have had.

Scratch that. As I was telling my brother-in-law as the Tigers took a commanding 2-1 lead in the series, I don't believe in momentum. Oh, I know that it exists, but in the scheme of things, it always seems that a ballclub has momentum until they don't again. In 2004, the Yanks had great momentum through three games of the ALCS. Forty-eight hours later, that momentum had not slowed, nor stopped, it simply belonged to the Red Sox now. Any force that so easily and seamlessly reverses itself can't properly be called "momentum." Give it another name. Luck, perhaps?

Anyway, Thursday's one-run loss set up tonight's duel of the old lefties, Randy "Bulging Disc" Johnson against Kenny "Poor Impulse Control" Rogers. The Gambler, as Rogers is sometimes called, has a history with New York. In 1996, he was supposed to be the final piece of the pitching puzzle. He went 12-8 during the regular season, but during the playoffs he spit the bit so badly that he pitched seven total innings over three starts and one relief appearance, and allowed 11 earned runs. That's a 14.14 ERA! Brother T famously recounts that when he was announced during the victory parade after the Yanks won the World Series, John Sterling's intro was "This Yankee didn't lose a single game in the entire postseason." Kindly omitting that he didn't win one, either (or that bit about the double-digit ERA). Then, still under the same contract he signed with the Yanks in December, 1995, in 1999 the Gambler joined the Mets, and again made the postseason. This time, he was able to pitch 12 innings, and allow "just" 9 runs, in two series against the Diamondbacks and Braves. This time, Rogers collected an 0-3 record. He was the pitcher on the mound when the Mets were eliminated in Game 6 of the NLCS, walking in the winning run for the Braves. In 2003, Kenny Rogers again made it to the postseason, this time with the Minnesota Twins--and had to face the Yankees in the ALDS. He went 13-8 for the Twins that season, but only managed one inconsequential--but scoreless--appearance as the Yankees won both the game and the series, 3-1.

So this is the part that's bugging me. I can understand losing. I can understand Randy Johnson getting raked. (Why is it that his failure doesn't mean as much to Yankee fans as A-Rod's, though?) But the Gambler comes up aces in the playoffs? Kenny Rogers shuts down the vaunted Yankee offense into the eighth inning?

WTF?

So now, it's backs-against-the-wall time. If the Yanks don't sweep the next two, this will officially be the most disappointing Yankee team since 2002. The blame will go on A-Rod, even though Robbie Cano's been hitting a just-as-robust .091 so far, and Team Leader Giambi is at .125. But Rodriguez will be the only one that doesn't come through in the clutch.

Oh, and on whose arm does the fate of the Yankee season rest? Try Jaret Friggin' Wright.

That burns. It burns something fierce. See you tomorrow at two.

Wednesday, October 04, 2006

ALDS Game 1: Yankees 8, Tigers 4

The Captain goes five fer five; our boy Wang goes 6 2/3 strong; Bobby Abreu plated Jeter and Damon twice apiece; and Jason Giambi hit a big two-run bomb.

Brother J, Brother T, and my Sis-in-Law M were all at the game, and I was supposed to be there, too, until I was thwarted by work. When I was young, I believed we worked to have money to go to ballgames. These days I work and it keeps me away from the ballpark. I think I had my priorities right when I was younger.

One down, ten more to go. Do it for Alex's sake :)

Month In Review: September, 2006

Not much time to chat, just some awards:

Record for the Month: 18-11 (132 RA, 180 RS)

Player of the Month: Robinson Cano actually won the AL Player of the Month Award with a .373/.383/.664 performance, seven homers, and a team-leading 11 doubles and 28 RBI. We're not going to disagree. Trailing him slightly was the man who finished just ahead of him in the batting race, Derek Jeter, who finished up strong, batting .368/.419/.500 in September. Sadly, neither Yankee's surge was good enough to catch Joe Mauer (.329/.437/.506 in September, .347/.429/.507 overall) for the batting title.

Slightly lower down, because of less playing time, are Alex Rodriguez (.358/.465/.691, team-leading eight homers and 16 walks) and Jorge Posada (.316/.396/.646, 6 homers). On the pitching side of the ledger, Mark Bruney made the postseason roster on the strength of 16 strikeouts and only one run allowed in 14 innings--even if he did walk 10 batters; Scott Proctor put up nice numbers (1.74 ERA) while once again leading the relievers in innings pitched; Chien Ming Wang had a 3-1 record and a 3.48 ERA; Jaret Wright was impressive in his three starts--2-0, 2.95 ERA.

Dregs of the Month: Twenty-seven. That's Ron Villone's ERA for the month of September. He registered only six innings pitched over nine appearances, and he allowed 14 hits, nine walks, three homers, and 18 runs scored. That completely overshadows Cory Lidle (6.38 ERA) and Octavio Dotel (10.80 ERA). Heck, Lidle even had a winning record for the month!

On the batting side, Johnny Damon (.205/.286/.307) and Melky Cabrera (.247/.346/.316) dragged down their numbers for the year, and Bernie Williams didn't finish strong (.236/.300/.327). Jason Giambi's wrist limited his playing time and his hitting (.192/.364/.308).

After the playoffs are over, I intend to sort through the mess of weekly and monthly reviews to figure out what happened this season, give out some final grades. No story for this month, just another AL East title.

Monday, October 02, 2006

Week In Review: End of the Marathon

9/25-10/1

Record for the Week
: 4-3 (32 RA, 55 RS)
Overall: 97-65, 1st Place, AL East; Tie, Best Record in MLB (with the Mets)

Player of the Week: Alex Rodriguez had a great week (.600/.684/1.000) but only played in five of the Yanks' seven games against the Rays, O's and Jays. Jorge Posada (.333/.368/.944) only played one more game, but he smacked three homers in the season's final week, to go with right RBI. He's the player of the week. Bobby Abreu matched the homer and RBI numbers, but not the overall performance (.346/.346/.692). Robinson Cano surged (.370/.357/.630) as he made a final kick to win the batting race, although he gets dusted by Derek Jeter (.458/.519/.583) in this regard. Hideki Matsui (.444/.545/.611) did a good job of showing that he's ready for the postseason, as did Gary Sheffield (.300/.300/.650), with the bat at least. Mike Mussina had a good final tune-up (6 IP, 1 R, 2 H, 0 BB, 4 K) and Mariano Rivera showed that he's ready for the ALDS, with three scoreless one-inning appearances, allowing three hits and striking out three.

Oh, and in less happy news, Miguel Cairo hit .333/.429/.500, bringing his season averages to .239/.280/.320. He makes the postseason roster. September is a lot like Spring Training when we talk about sample size illusions.

Dregs of the Week: Melky Cabrera, facing the somewhat unfair loss of his starting job to Hideki Matsui, didn't finish strong (.235/.278/.294). Darrell Rasner might not have had a shot at the postseason, anyway, but allowing five runs in less than three innings during his start this week didn't make the decision difficult on the brass.

I could regale you with "Octavio Dotel this" and "T.J. Beam that," but let's finish up on a positive note, shall we?

Story of the Week: Nine straight division titles. Twelve straight years in the playoffs. Five straight years without a World Series ring.

The first two facts are simply overwhelming. When I came up as a Yankee fan, in the 80's and early 90's, a run like this was simply unimaginable. You didn't dare think of such a thing. But this Yankee team has kept its nucleus together, has reaped the rewards of good decisionmaking and survived a good number of big errors, and has spent a ton of money in the process.

The last, I have a hard time getting all worked up about. I was upset when the Yanks lost the World Series in 2001--one out away in the ninth inning--but I was comforted that the team had played as well as it could, lost with its best pitcher on the mound. C'est la vie, right? In 2003, it was a bummer to lose to the Marlins, but the games were close, the team had shown a lot of heart escaping the ALCS...it was difficult to take things too hard. In 2004...well, we don't talk about 2004. The other years, 2005 and 2002, the Yankees weren't anywhere close to the class of the league.

But it's always do or die for some New Yorkers, and this Yankee team will be judged on whether or not the team gets a victory parade through downtown Manhattan. Reputations will be made or destroyed based upon whether or not this set of Yankees get World Series rings. Nothing else will matter.

The crew they take on this mission is pretty much what I sketched out two weeks ago, just with Gary Sheffield on the roster in place of Darrell Rasner. This gives the Yanks the best lineup of all the playoff teams, perhaps the best lineup of any Yankee team over the past 12 years. It's also a squad that's weaker defensively than what the Yanks have carried around much of the year, with Jason Giambi stuck at DH due to a torn tendon in his wrist, Gary Sheffield starting at first despite a dearth of experience, and Hideki Matsui playing left instead of Melky Cabrera.

The starting rotation, meanwhile, could be the worst of the last twelve years. The Yankees' best starter is Chien Ming Wang, who is probably on a par with a young Andy Pettitte. Like Pettitte, Wang has a talent for going late into games, also like Pettitte, Wang can be very inconsistent from start to start. That's an asset, a very good pitcher, but not a great one. Mike Mussina's been effective in the Jaime Moyer phase of his career, but not quite as good since going on the DL in mid-August. Mussina hasn't pitched seven innings in a start since July.

Then comes the real wild card of the rotation, Randy Johnson. Johnson sucked down the stretch, but it was recently revealed that he has a bulging disc in his back. He's received an epidural shot, and will try his best to make his start in Game 3 of the ALDS. Anyone's guess which Randy Johnson, if any, will show up. Cory Lidle's on the roster in case Johnson falters. That leaves Jaret Wright as the number 4 starter, which is better than most playoff teams can put out there, but, like Johnson, not exactly someone you can count on.

In the bullpen, we hope that Mariano Rivera is well-rested. Since the Tigers are a pitching and defense team (as are the A's, and to an extent the Twins) we're probably going to be looking at some close scores in the late innings. Rivera's frequently-used right hand man will be Scott Proctor, followed by Kyle Farnsworth. Brian Bruney might have passed Farnsworth on the depth chart given a little more time. Mike Myers will be there for LOOGY purposes--on the Tigers, that means "to get out Curtis Granderson." And Ron Villone will be a ticking time bomb...er, second lefty out of the pen, long relief guy.

So, how is all this going to work out? The key is Johnson. If he's able to give the Yanks six or seven solid innings per start over the next few weeks, then I think the Yanks can and probably will beat any team they face. If not, the Yanks will fall, perhaps as soon as the ALDS, if not almost certainly in ALCS against either the A's or the Twins.

What do I think will happen? This might be my heart rather than my brain speaking, but I think that Johnson will somehow manage to keep his stuff together, and the Yanks will win the ALDS in five games against a surprisingly tough Tigers team.

In other Division Series news, I think the A's will take down the Twins in a pretty big upset, payback for a ALDS beatdown a few years back. In the NL, I think the Mets--who became underdogs pretty quickly after Pedro Martinez's shoulder injury was revealed, will win a tough series against the Dodgers, and the Padres will beat St. Louis, setting up a Mike Piazza reunion NLCS. But we'll make the LCS predictions when we get there, not before.

Back tomorrow with September in Review.

Sunday, October 01, 2006

The Tigers, We Presume?

This afternoon, around 4:30, I tuned in to the Detroit Tigers playing the Kansas City Royals, in extra innings. Detroit loaded the bases against the Royals with one out. They were the home team. That's a pretty good chance to win.

The Yankees had already lost--that was incidental, however. Sunday's game was the let-your-hair-down relaxed affair it has been just about every year for the Yankees. Torre lets one of his veteran players manage--this year, Bernie Williams--and others take the roles of some of the coaches (I didn't notice if they allowed players to replace Bowa and Pena as the base coaches). Just about everyone plays, like an All-Star Game or Little League. The Yanks lost on a two-run dinger off of Kyle Farnsworth, which I think is an issue we'll revisit when we review the week tomorrow.

Anyway, more significant to the Tigers, the Twins had already won. So Detroit's fate was in its own hands--a win, and they're the division champ, playing the A's in the first round. A loss, and they're the Wild Card, playing the Yankees. It was very evident which match-up the Detroiters preferred. Kenny Rogers, potentially the Tigers' Game 1 starter for the ALDS, came into the game in the top of the 11th. In the bottom of the 11th, the Tigers blew that beautiful scoring opportunity I mentioned in the first paragraph. Then, in the top of the next frame, the Royals scored a couple of runs, and that's all she wrote.

It's here that my brain and my heart get all cross-wired. The Tigers are a better matchup for the Yankees than the Twins. The Twins have big, scary Johan Santana and young pitching. The Tigers' pitching is young, but they're coming into the playoffs cold as ice. They've lost their last five in a row, and for those of you who like larger sample sizes, they're a .500 team (actually, a game under) since the All-Star Break. Over that same stretch, the Twins are 48-27.

Still, I was hoping to avoid the Yanks/Tigers matchup. I wanted the Tigers to win their division, then lose to the A's in the ALDS, clearing out of the way so the Yanks could take down the A's, then face whoever the National League decides to send out there this year. So my fantasyland desires had the Yanks parading through ticker tape down the Canyon of Heroes, all without setting a single postseason foot in Comerica Park.

Mind you--this wasn't my prediction, or what I thought made the most sense, just simply what I wanted. Naturally, this was the path that put me least in Dutch with my wife.

You see, my wife's from Detroit. My in-laws--who, by the way, are visiting this week--live in Detroit. Ironically, none of La Chiquita's kin are baseball fans (my mother-in-law favors the Pistons, my brother-in-law is into football) but they are all about civic pride.

I know, this is not something to complain about. Not making the playoffs, like the Red Sox, the White Sox, the Angels, the Astros, Reds and Phillies did, now that's something to complain about. And it's particularly not something for Yankee fans to complain about. None except one, that is.

More tomorrow...