Roster Roundup

All right. Last week I had a horrible temptation to start looking at the Yanks' postseason roster candidates, and start handicapping some of the fringe-ier guys. But I put it off until I had the chance to do the whole thing justice. Let's start with some rules and assumptions--the Yanks have to put together a 25 man roster for the playoffs--10-12 pitchers, 13-15 position players. You're going to have at least two catchers, at least one utility guy who can cover the Yanks at each of the infield positions, a backup first baseman, and someone who can "play" centerfield, should anything happen to Johnny Damon. Everyone who is going to play in this thing must be on the 40 man roster. Also, because of non-performance issues (contracts, "chemistry," compromising pictures of manager or coaches) there are people who shouldn't make the roster, who will, and vice-versa.

POSITION PLAYERS

The Starters (8)--these guys are making the team, as if you didn't know:

Jorge Posada, C
Jason Giambi, 1B/DH
Robinson Cano, 2B
Alex Rodriguez, 3B
Derek Jeter, SS
Melky Cabrera, LF
Johnny Damon, CF
Bobby Abreu, RF

'Nuff said. Each of these guys has earned their way onto the squad. Some could play multiple positions--A-Rod could back up short, Cabrera could back up in right and center--but that's not the way Joe Torre uses his players. With the exception of the DH slot, and the possibility of Matsui coming back to play the outfield, not much is going to change here.

Backup Catchers (1):

Sal Fasano--has the job won, mainly due to lack of competition and imagination. Fasano's hitting .143/.217/.286, so you can't really say he "earned" the job with his bat. The Yankees backup catcher is something you only use in case of emergency, so this roster spot is wasted from the get-go.

Wil Nieves--who? Yeah, not in the picture. He hit .259/.298/.346...in the International League.

Craig Wilson--doesn't catch anymore. But if you accept that your backup is just an emergency guy anyway, why not try someone who can give you more than Fasano or Nieves can?

Utility Infield (1 or 2):

Miguel Cairo--pros: he was an effective player two years ago, is a known quantity to the coaching staff, has played all four infield positions this season; cons: what's known about the quantity is bad, hit .229/.269/.299 this season, after hitting .254/.296/.324. That trend line is not going up. Oh, and he's rusty after missing a big chunk of the season with an injury. Nonetheless, he's most likely to be the utility infielder.

Andy Phillips--is a pretty good defensive 1B, and has in the past played 3B and 2B, between Phillips and A-Rod, the entire infield should be covered. Alas, Phillips's defensive reputation at the skill positions is so bad that no-one takes him seriously as a backup--since I haven't seen Phillips play in the minors, I don't know how justified that is. If he's on the roster just as a backup 1B, given all the other potential 1B backups on the roster (Wilson, Sheffield, Guiel), it's likely a waste.

Nick Green--Dark horse choice for this job. Didn't show much in the minors, but he's hit better than Cairo as a Yankee (.254/.312/.408) in a small sample size. Has played all three infield positions (other than 1B). He's had bad games in the field with the Yankees, but seems to have more range than Cairo.

Andy Cannizaro--no chance. Not a prospect, not a big leaguer. Next!

Backup Outfielders/DH (2-5):

(Good Bets--both of these guys likely make the roster)

Hideki Matsui--Hit this week, looks good with the bat after the long layoff. It's 99% he makes the team. Big question whether he will be able to play the field before the end of the season--if not, that's a spot that the Yankees use up on a DH/pinch hitter.

Bernie Williams--he's got a 95% chance of making the roster. Can "play" all three outfield slots, but isn't a defensive asset at any of them. A .281/.334/.434 performance isn't that bad for a pinch hitter, but that's really all he does for your club.

(And one from column B. Maybe.)

Aaron Guiel--He's got a decent bat, he can backup center...and he probably doesn't make a roster that has Bernie Williams on it.

Craig Wilson--yeah, the same guy from our backup C discussion. His Sioux name is "Bats Against Lefties." He's not a defensive replacement at first, which is a role Torre tried to shoehorn him into.

Kevin Thompson--my sentimental favorite. I like Thompson more than I should--to me, he's the kind of role player you should have on your playoff roster, able to do little useful things in support of the team, rather than having an expensive player whose talents are greater, but less versatile. Who's a pinch-runner on this ballclub? None of the utility infield types are actually fast, neither are the two backup OFs above. What about a defensive replacement in the outfield? Thompson could fill those roles.

Gary Sheffield--the wild card. He hasn't stepped to the bat yet, much less shown us his skillz at first. If his bat shows signs of life, Sheff could make the roster, or he could skip the ALDS and be on the roster if the Yanks advance to the League Championship. He doesn't have much time to show off his wares, just under two weeks. If Sheff makes it onto the roster, Joe will be juggling players and making assessments during the playoffs.


PITCHERS

Starting Pitchers (4 or 5):

Mike Mussina, RHP
Chien Ming Wang, RHP
Randy Johnson, LHP

The top three are no questions, asked, no guilt involved, your 1-3 starters. Each has had moments of brilliance this season; Mussina has been the most consistent, but also the one who has been injured. No telling which Johnson answers the bell in the postseason.

Jaret Wright, RHP
Corey Lidle, RHP

The competition for the fourth spot is between two veteran, low-strikeout, six-inning pitchers. Both Lidle and Wright have had good moments this season, but either of them can also be out of the game by the third inning, with your team down 6-0. One of them has to make it, the smart bet is that both of them do make it. If they both make it, either the Yanks go with a five-man playoff rotation (ugh) or Lidle goes to the pen as a long man.

Relievers (5-7):

Mariano Rivera, RHP
Scott Proctor, RHP
Mike Myers, LHP

These three can only be kept off the roster by their health. If the Yanks head into October without Rivera, they might as well pick the rest of the names out of a hat. Proctor is probably the second most reliable pitcher in the pen, particularly when Torre remembers he doesn't have to pitch him every day. Mike Myers' new ad campaign--"He's not just for lefties anymore!"(tm)-- has run into a bit of reality in a few extended appearances against all comers lately. Still, he's the best thing going in this bullpen to get out a difficult lefty bat.

(Not on the Bubble, But Maybe Should Be)

Kyle Farnsworth, RHP--perhaps the most frustrating pitcher in baseball. Great stuff, but pitches bone-stupid. Worst of all, he's a hothouse flower, with an amazing number of things that restrict his usage--can't pitch more than one inning, can't pitch back-to-back days. He's on the potseason roster, but with all his limitations, Farnsworth looks better on paper and in the scouting reports than he is in reality.

Ron Villone, LHP--hasn't been effective since mid-August. He's allowed at least one run to score in each of his September appearances. Barring a miracle cure, does that sound like a pitcher you want to call in from the bullpen in October?

(Should Make the Team, But No Guarantees)

Brian Bruney, RHP--has control issues, but he also cooks with gas. Small sample size warnings abound, but he looks like the pitcher the Yanks thought they were getting with Farnsworth. Usage suggests that Joe Torre is starting to like him, too.

Darrell Rasner, RHP--between him and Karstens, one of them should make the team as a swingman. I hope it's Rasner. Rasner's got a prospect pedigree, he works down in the zone, and he has a nice curve. I'd probably take him ahead of Lidle, too, but would Joe Torre?

(Could Make It, But Shouldn't)

Jeff Karstens, RHP--a/k/a Scary Fly Ball Pitcher. His ground-out/fly-out ratio in the majors was 0.61, which would be good for second among ERA qualifiers if Karstens kept it up. He's allowed 5 homers in less than 29 innings. Pass.

Jose Veras, RHP--good track record in the minors (2.41 ERA, 21 Sv, 68 K in 59.7 IP at Columbus); but he's only gotten five innings in the bigs. Got the save by default in last night's game, would need to get many more innings in the next week and a half to be considered.

Octavio Dotel, RHP--the Great Experiment is a failure. It takes Tommy John guys time to come back, usually their command is the last thing that returns. If I recall correctly, according to Will Carroll, this is because the surgery messes with the pitcher's sense of proprioreception--the sense that tells you where you where your body parts are, and enables you to touch your nose with your finger, even when your eyes are closed. I hope the Yanks re-sign Dotel on the cheap, and give him a shot at a job next year. But this year, he can't get anyone out.

(Very, Very, Long Shots)

Sean Henn, LHP--probably should be getting a better look, considering how badly Villone has pitched. Henn's minor league peripherals suck, and he doesn't have a track record of success in the big leagues. There's no time to see if he can do the job, now.

TJ Beam, RHP--Theodore Lester Beam had a great minor league season (a combined 1.22 ERA in 73.7 IP between Trenton and Columbus) but a far less distinguished time in his major league try-outs (9.60 ERA in 15 IP). Maybe next year. Maybe.


So where does all this leave us? Here's the roster I think the Yankees will take into the ALDS:

Position Players (13)

Jorge Posada, C
Jason Giambi, 1B/DH
Robinson Cano, 2B
Alex Rodriguez, 3B
Derek Jeter, SS
Melky Cabrera, LF
Johnny Damon, CF
Bobby Abreu, RF
Hideki Matsui, LF/DH
Bernie Williams OF/DH
Sal Fasano, C
Miguel Cairo, IF
Andy Phillips, 1B

Pitchers (12)

Mike Mussina, RHP
Chien Ming Wang, RHP
Randy Johnson, LHP
Jaret Wright, RHP
Corey Lidle, RHP
Mariano Rivera, RHP
Scott Proctor, RHP
Mike Myers, LHP
Kyle Farnsworth, RHP
Ron Villone, LHP
Brian Bruney, RHP
Darrell Rasner, RHP

NOTES: Again, the great Wild Card is Sheffield, who could elbow his way onto the roster, maybe at the expense of Phillips or Rasner. Green should be making this roster over Cairo, but I think that so long as Miguel can convince Torre he's healthy, loyalty will trump performance. Craig Wilson probably should be getting a better look in the time remaining, and they need to try Matsui in the outfield, and Sheffield at first. The Yanks should also go with fewer pitchers than I have above, but the team has a history of sacrificing the bench to put extra arms on the roster.