Option B

"Beeeeeware the Pavano!"

A ghostly voice woke me in the night. The radiator in the bedroom was going full-blast, and I woke up in a sweat, as if I had a fever. Carl Pavano? Where?

After looking around and making sure that Can't Pitch Carl wasn't in the bedroom, threatening myself and La Chiquita with grievous bodily harm. I settled back down for some rest. What the heck was that about?

"Beware the Paavaaaaanoooooo!"

I woke back up, peeved. What Pavano? And why did the ghostly voice think that moaning out a different word in the sentence would make me more likely to heed its call? I mean, for the first time in three years, I was finally over my Pavano issues--Carl had his Tommy John surgery in June, and it seemed like the timing of that was so that the Yankees could ensure he'd never again pitch in a Yankee uniform (since even people with normal healing times usually take more than 15 months to come back from ligament replacement). The Yanks would keep him on the roster, get back whatever they could in insurance money, and then we could put one of the worst free agent signings ever behind us, forever.

"Beware the..."

I swear, if I found that ghostly voice I was gonna bust him upside the head. What damn...

Oh! And then I got it: this was about the Johan Santana non-deal.

The Yankees now swear up and down that they won't pursue Santana. After Hank Steinbrenner's ultimatum--the kind of peevish complaint guaranteed to inspire rebellion, if not veiled accusations of tampering--the Yankees and Twins were unable to settle on a third prospect in the great Santana hunt of 2007. The Bronx Bombers' main rivals (in this and seemingly everything else), the Red Sox, seem to have also struck out in the short term. The Yanks are saying all the right thing about sticking with their youth movement on the mound. But even if the Melky and Hughes for Santana deal is off the table, there's still danger lurking in the weeds.

It's Option B, better known as Oakland A's pitcher Danny Haren. Or as my mind has been thinking about him since the ghostly visitation...the Pavano.

I know that's not quite a fair comparison. Haren's a really good pitcher, who's been extraordinarily resilient over the last three years:

YEAR NAME AGE W L IP SO9 RA+ SNLVAR
2005 Dan Haren 24 14 12 217 6.76 1.13 5.2
2006 Dan Haren 25 14 13 223 7.1 1.11 5.3
2007 Dan Haren 26 15 9 222.7 7.76 1.30 6.3

(Yes, I've written this blog for four years, and I still can't figure out how to make a table look good. Sorry.)

But then again, Pavano was also a pretty good pitcher in the couple of years before he choked us under a veil of tears joined the Yankees:

YEAR NAME AGE W L IP SO9 RA+ SNLVAR
2003 Carl Pavano 27 12 13 201 5.96 1.02 5.2
2004 Carl Pavano 28 18 8 222.3 5.63 1.42 7

He was really good. He just wasn't the best available. That year, the offseason after the 2004 ALCS disaster, the best starter available was Pedro Martinez, late of the Red Sox. The Mets picked him up, and the Yankees settled for the next best thing, Pavano. There were things to commend Pavano over Martinez. Martinez had known health issues, and was older. If you'd asked who was the safer bet to receive a four-year deal, Pavano from ages 29-32 or Pedro from ages 33-36, you'd probably answer, the young guy without arm trouble. Still, even if Pedro doesn't pitch another inning at Shea, you'd have to say that the Mets got more mileage out of the $53 million they gave Martinez than the Yanks got out of the $40 million they gave Pavano.

Back to Haren. Billy Beane is a smart guy. He has a very good young pitcher, Haren, signed to a nice, below-market contract ($9.5 MM over the next two years, $6.75 MM club option for 2010). Why would he want to trade away a guy like this?

It's because of the market that Johan Santana has created. Santana isn't just a good pitcher, he's the best pitcher. A lot of people have supposedly been scared off by Santana's reported contract demands, but there's a hunger for what he brings to the table. He's not just a #1 pitcher, he's the #1 pitcher. The ace of aces. Only a handful of hurlers can claim to be in his company--Josh Beckett, Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Roy Oswalt, C.C. Sabathia, maybe Justin Verlander--and none of those guys have his performance record. Haren isn't part of that group, he's in the next group, which includes young guys like Felix Hernandez, Erik Bedard, Chien Ming Wang, Cole Hamels, Scott Kazmir, and a few others,* who are close to that elite level but just fall short, or haven't yet proven they can do it consistently enough to be one of those "once in a generation" type pitchers. Like Martinez, Clemens, and Randy Johnson were in their respective primes. Like Santana is now.

When a pitcher like Santana is available, guys you've long considered untouchable become...touchable. If you have to surrender a Phil Hughes, or Jon Lester, or Clay Buchholz, or Clayton Kershaw, you grit your teeth and do it. Those guys may have the potential to become the next Santana or Peavy or Beckett, but there's value in knowing that you have someone who's already made it to that level, who's survived grind of operating at as an ace year in and year out.

So if Beane is making Haren available, it's because he hopes to let the Twins do the hard work, loosening GM's fingers off their best prospects as everyone vies to get the best pitcher in baseball. And then, once everyone's gotten used to the idea that Hughes isn't untouchable, that Lester or Jacoby Ellsbury can be had, then Beane can sweep in and market Haren, as the best pitcher available not named Santana. And it's not that hard to talk yourself into this idea: Haren's pretty good, and his contract is small-market friendly, and for all I know he's super-kind to children and animals. But he's not Johan Santana--he's just the next best thing.

Forget Pavano, which is pretty much a fighting word in any Yankee fan's vocabulary. Last year, the best pitcher available was Daisuke Matsuzaka. The Yanks were outbid, handily, on the posting fee for the best talent out there, but they settled for Option B--Kei Igawa. Last year, the Yanks paid about $30 million (the posting fee plus Igawa-san's salary) for Dr. Kei to pitch more innings in the minors (77 1/3) than in the majors (67 2/3). Sometimes the best move is not to make a move at all.


[* NOTE: Before anyone complains about that list of second-tier #1 pitchers, I'm not counting guys who are on the wrong side of 30. Many of them--John Smoltz, Tim Hudson, A.J. Burnett, Roy Halladay--can be just as good as any of the guys I've listed, but likely wouldn't have the same trade value.]

Emptying the Clip

I've got a bad feeling about this. No, I haven't heard any news about Johan Santana, but I did hear about the trade that the Yanks made yesterday--Tyler Clippard gets dealt to the hyperactive Washington Nationals (seriously, can we get Jim Bowden a sedative, or else just keep him away from sugar?) for righthanded reliever Jonathan Albaladejo. I might be overreacting, but I wonder if this is the first domino falling in a cycle where the Yanks unload a good deal of their cache of young pitchers.

Not that Albaladejo's an old man. He just turned 25, which makes him about 2 1/2 years older than Clippard. He turned in a nice 14 or so inning stint with Washington, and I've seen a Nationals blogger (Jon at the Nationals Report) say he has an "electric fastball and a tough makeup." I saw him in the Caribbean Series in February and wasn't impressed by his heat or his poise. Here's what I wrote at the time:

• Jonathan Albaladejo is not as advanced as Castro. At 23 [sic], he’s only gotten as high as AA in the Pittsburgh Pirates organization. He’s 6’5” with a big frame. Sunday night it didn’t look like his fastball was as big as he is (my kingdom for a radar gun!). He got ahead in the count well enough, but showed a tendency to nibble afterward.
• Two on, none out in the bottom of the first: Miguel Tejada got to a one ball, two strike count and then had a batting helmet crisis. After trying on every helmet in the Dominican dugout, Tejada came back to fill the count, which provoked a conference on the mound. Albaladejo looked so serious and tentative it was like he was playing chess with Death. Death won, Tejada walked, and another conference on the mound ensued.

Now, I'm not a scout, and you absolutely, positively should never base an opinion on seeing a player just once. For all I know, that was the worst game of his career. The thing is, before last season Clippard was a top-five prospect with the Yanks; while Albaladejo was picked up as a minor league free agent out of the Pirates organization last season. So, in short, the Yanks have surrendered something of value for a guy they could have picked up for free less than twelve months earlier. I'll miss Clippard, and hope I'm wrong about Albaladejo.

In sunnier news, Project P46 turned out to be a rousing success. According to reports, Andy Pettitte is returning to the Bronx for one more go, and reportedly, the outpouring of fan support was one reason why. Thanks to Steve Lombardi for thinking it up, and thanks to everyone who participated.

Week In Review: 499

Week 17: July 23-29, 2007

Record for the Week: 4-3*, 42 RS, 31 RA
(*5-3 if you count the completion of the June 28 game with the O's)
Overall: 56-49, 4 games behind Cleveland for the Wild Card

Once again, we're skipping the Breakdown, just this time it's because I didn't get to watch as much baseball as I would have liked last week.

Player of the Week: In a week where the pitching wasn't terribly exceptional, the prizes go to hitters. Hideki Matsui (.296/.364/.519) and Robinson Cano (.407/.452/.556) have been on fire all month. Jorge Posada (.333/.417/.571) gets extra credit for getting into it with Kyle Farnsworth this week. But the winner is Melky Cabrera (.385/.419/.692), who's doing a lot to justify the considerable faith put in him this season. There have been times when he looked like he needed to go back down, and he's still inconsistent enough that next week could be one of those times. But for right now, he's the player of the week.

Dregs of the Week: As mentioned before, we have Kyle Farnsworth (1 HR, 2 runs, and 1 catcher argument in trying to blow Sunday's game)--you can't live with him, you can't shoot him and bury him in the back yard. But then we also have Scranton-bound Kei Igawa (5 runs in 5 2/3) who's a befuddling mix of strikeout stuff and tateriffic hittableness. And Shelley Duncan (1 for 8 on the week with a walk) went from the highs to the lows, showing that even a three homer weekend doesn't guarantee a rookie playing time in Joe Torre's world. I'm not sure if that's bad or good.

Story of the Week: The chase for Alex Rodriguez's homer number 500 is the sort of thing that's bound to take on a life of its own. A-Rod reached 499 last Wednesday, against the Royals, raised the possibility of his 500th homer being caught in a time warp if he went yard in the Yankees' two-inning mini-game to complete the Yanks/Orioles' June 28th matchup, which was suspended due to rain under the new MLB rules.

By Saturday, however, the story was about how Rodriguez was pressing for #500, conveniently feeding into the "Rodriguez is a sensitive guy who folds under pressure" meme that's been so popular in previous years. People who want to put that one out there can point at Rodriguez's .123 batting average last week. This forgets that the O's steadfastly refused to give him anything in the strike zone--with their own fans sounding disappointed every time Rodriguez didn't hit a homer, the Birds walked Alex five times over the three regular games of the weekend series.

This isn't to say that Alex isn't feeling the pressure. It's hard to try to go out and hit a homer, and I'd bet it's harder still when everyone is expecting you to hit one on...this at bat. But give the guy a break--the O's obviously wanted no part of an A-Rod ESPN highlight this weekend.

(From a more cynical perspective, you could also note that keeping the "will he or won't he" excitement for homer #500 going through the weekend could possibly have helped the O's at the turnstiles. Does Baltimore draw a capacity crowd on Saturday and Sunday if Rodriguez hits #500 on Friday? Maybe, maybe not.)

Back with the Month in Review on Thursday.

Seeeing the Hughes Half-Full

All the plans were to be protective of Philip Hughes. The number two prospect in the minors last year--pretty close to a consensus, although Delmon Young and Homer Bailey may still want to be heard on that issue--Hughes is a guy that a lot of teams would have had up in the Show last year, when he was beating the everlovin' crap out of the Florida State and Eastern Leagues. But the Yankees had different plans, particularly after the wunderkind's control abandoned him during Spring Training. Hughes would get the Yankees' full course of patience--spending most, if not all the season in lovely Scranton, PA. It was possible he'd get a September call-up, but the Yanks figured they'd picked up so much pitching depth that if he was called up, it wouldn't be out of necessity.

Fast forward to mid-April (trust me, it doesn't take long) and the depth is toast. I've already talked about 60% of the rotation going down to injury--if there's one thing that Hughes's call-up tells us, is that the Yanks maybe aren't too optimistic that Carl Pavano will return quickly from his latest owie. Then there's been the none-too-inspiring early returns on Kei Igawa. There's the injury to Karstens and the general ineffectiveness of Karstens and his baseball twin Darrell Rasner. There was the rushing of Chase Wright to the majors after two career starts above A ball.

Down on the farm, bad things have been happening. Last Wednesday Humberto Sanchez, the top pitcher (and boogie-down Bronx native) the Yanks picked up for Gary Sheffield, had ligament replacement surgery for his pitching elbow. He joins Christian Garcia and Mark Melancon among the top Yankees prospects to have "Tommy John" surgery in the last few months, and J.B. Cox makes for an even four Yanks prospects to have elbow surgery.

Of the remaining healthy advanced pitching prospects in the Yanks system, the early returns haven't been awe-inspiring. Tyler Clippard has a 5.12 ERA at AAA, and Ross Ohlendorf has walked more guys (14 in 20 IP) than he's struck out (12). Steven Jackson couldn't get out of the fourth inning of his last start. Other than Hughes, Matt DeSalvo is the only starter pitching well at Scranton--but giving how low he is on the prospect totem pole, DeS is going to have to
show his stuff for a while longer before the Yanks believe he's major league ready.

So the Phil Hughes era starts on Thursday.

In addition to forcing the Yanks' hand into bringing up Hughes now, Sanchez and the others' elbow injuries reinforce an idea--that pitchers are largely on borrowed time, and sometimes the best you can do is get major league innings out of them while they're still effective. That's a rather dark take on carpe diem, I know, but the point is, if Phil Hughes could be getting major league hitters out now--and there's plenty to indicate that he's ready to do so--then what's he doing in the International League, other than running up the odometer?

****

It's rainy and cool today in New York, and I'm hoping they can get the game in. After the Yanks' disastrous two-game set in Tampa Bay, Andy Pettitte could do Hughes a real favor by winning tonight. It's enough pressure to be the Golden Child, the savior of baseball's most storied franchise. It's quite another to make your first major league start with the pressure of having to end a five- or six-game losing streak on your shoulders.

Week In Review: April 9-15, 2007

Record for the Week: 3-3, 31 runs scored, 21 runs allowed
Overall: 5-6, 4th Place AL East, 2 games behind the Red Sox

The Breakdown:

4/9 Yankees 8, Twins 2
Carl Pavano controlled the Twinkies' attack, while Bobby Abreu led the offense, with two singles, a homer, and 3 RBI.

4/10 Yankees 10, Twins 1
Johnny Damon with 3 RBI, A-Rod with his 6th homer in 7 games, and Andy Pettitte pitched 6 clean innings.

4/11 Yankees 1, Twins 5
It looked so promising--Moose on the mound, Ramon Ortiz on the other side--so promising until Mussina motioned to the dugout in the third inning, and took himself out of the game. Kyle Farnsworth spit the bit after some good relief work by Sean Henn, Scott Proctor, and Luis Vizcaino.

4/13 Yankees 4, A's 5
After more Kyle Farnsworth silliness (homer to Nick Swisher in the 7th) this one went 11 innings before the Yanks took the loss.

4/14 Yankees 4, A's 3
Like the previous game in reverse, the Yanks coming back from early deficits, before breaking out behind Jason Giambi's homer in the 13th.

4/15 Yankees 4, A's 5
It's strange when Mariano--the only guy who normally wears #42, anymore--blows one. I was actually on the phone when Marco Scutaro took the Sandman deep for a three-run shot, and I just trailed off in mid-sentence...of a business call. A fitting end to a lousy week for the team.

Player of the Week: Another three homers, another seven RBI, .364/.448/.864 line. Alex Rodriguez is having a monster April, and leading the league in homers through Sunday. Nice. Jorge Posada put in a good supporting performance, .348/.423/.478 and three doubles. Derek Jeter would make this list with his .360/.467/.360 week, but his defensive troubles continued--he now has six errors in eleven games. Suddenly, people we've never heard criticize Jeter's "d" are saying things like "It's a well-known fact that he's an overrated defender." Yeah, it was a well-known fact back in 2000. Where were these guys then?

As noted above, the starters corrected course after earning joint Dregs honors (dishonors?) last week. Andy Pettitte came back with two quality starts--he gets co-Player of the Week honors with A-Rod--Pavano pitched in one of his own, Kei Igawa and Darrell Rasner managed tolerable starts, going five innings.

Dregs of the Week: Kyle Farnsworth's 13.50 ERA for the week is a great hint. In a bullpen that has a couple of established righthanded setup guys in Proctor and Vizcaino, plus the surprisingly good Brian Bruney, Kyle the blockhead could be losing his his place in the feeding line. His effort was more than matched by Doug Mientkiewicz's .050/.136/.050 week. That's bad enough to make you forget Melky Cabrera's ultrabad .240/.231/.240 week, as well as the bomb Mariano gave up to Scutaro. Lucky them.

Story of the Week: ...and then there were two. At this point, the entire righthanded compliment of the Yankees starting rotation is down with injuries, which we're told are of the nagging type--so far. But hamstring pulls can be a nasty kind of nagging injury, and the fact that be if the injured fellows is Carl Pavano is just plain bad news. Last time he was going to "just miss the minimum" with a not-so-serious problem, we didn't see him in uniform again for more than two years.

The horrible thing is I saw this happening. I watched Pavano's start and thought, "Hey, that isn't bad at all. Guy knows how to pitch." I that point I should have known something bad was going to happen. Maybe I could have called in a warning to the Metrodome switchboard. Too late now.

Chase Wright, who looked good in Spring Training and dominant in his first two AA starts (five baserunners and 19 Ks in 14 innings) comes up to pick up the slack. Wright's a curveballer who tore up the Florida State League last year, albeit at the age of 23. He's not a horrible pick for the start since he's not considered a top prospect--still, it's surprising that with all the depth the Yanks picked up at starting pitcher, the guy who they're calling on is someone who has all of 2 games of experience at AA. It'll be an interesting game.

In the meanwhile, if you see Andy Pettitte or Kei Igawa, please treat them gently.

Week In Review: April 2-8, 2007

Record for the Week: 2-3, 33 runs scored, 31 runs allowed

The Breakdown:

4/2 -- Yankees 9, Devil Rays 5
Crappy defense can't keep the Yankees from feasting on the Rays' middle relievers.

4/4 -- Rainout

4/5 -- Devil Rays 7, Yankees 6
Andy Pettitte makes a not-so-triumphant return to the Bronx, Jay Jaffe and Jonah Keri manage not to freeze to death, even in the bleachers.

4/6 -- Orioles 6, Yankees 4
Mike Mussina can't make it through five, continuing the streak of bad starting pitching.

4/7 -- Yankees 10, Orioles 7
Kei Igawa bombs in his first major league outing. He probably didn't imagine that the United States was this cold in April. Alex Rodriguez bails Dr. Kei out with a ninth-inning walk-off grand slam.

4/8 -- Orioles 6, Yankees 4
It isn't the cold so much as the wind and the horrible starting pitching. Darrell Rasner gets taken yard by Paul Bako, and Rodriguez's first inning homer is wasted.

Player of the Week: This one's kind of obvious, so we'll do the runners-up first. Yankees relievers--with the exception of Scott Proctor--rocked the house after the starters got beat up early. Brian Bruney has been overwhelming (6 Ks in 2 2/3 scoreless), and the icewater in Mariano Rivera's veins wasn't affected by the cold weather, at all (4 Ks in 2 scoreless innings). The big surprise has been Sean Henn, putting in 4 2/3 scoreless innings of work in three appearances. He wasn't overpowering, but it's good enough to make Ron Villone's return from Scranton unlikely.

With that out of the way, the Player of the Week was clearly Alex Rodriguez. He hit .381/.458/1.095 for the week, hitting four homers in five games, plating 13 runs, scoring eight himself. In the opener, his stolen base set the tone and started the Yankees comeback. On Saturday, his game-ender reached the black seats. Outside of the dropped pop-up in the opener, his defense has been solid. It has been a good week. A really, really good week.

But it's just a week. The same press that rushes to pillory him has been tripping over itself to declare that he's turned a new leaf. Let's give that a little time. It's a good week, against Tampa Bay and Baltimore. Week after next, if he has a bad week against the Indians and Red Sox, this early glory will be forgotten. It's good to see people getting off his back, and when he's got it going on, Alex Rodriguez is an absolute pleasure to watch. But somehow I doubt the season will be this easy for him.

Everyone--and this includes Alex himself--should enjoy this while it lasts.

Dregs of the Week: Can any one person take the credit for this five-man effort? Here are the numbers -- 0-2, 21 2/3 IP, 36 hits, 13 walks, 12 strikeouts, 9.97 ERA. Carl Pavano, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, Kei Igawa, and Darrell Rasner, take a bow! The last three did a marginally worse job than the first two, but that's apropos of nothing. Igawa's the only one to make it through the fifth inning, but he gave up seven runs en route, so let's not quite give him a cookie or anything. In the Japanese arms race, the Yanks are far behind the Red Sox, whose big-money signing, Daisuke Matsuzaka, had a sterling debt against the Royals (7 IP, 1 run, 10 Ks).

The Yanks didn't lead through five in any of the games they played, and needed some late-inning heroics to secure both of their wins. On offense, Melky Cabrera struggled (.118/.211/.118) when given some playing time due to Johnny Damon's strained calves. Now that Hideki Matsui's on the DL, Melky had best get himself straight. Jason Giambi didn't hit too well overall (.158/.273/.316) but he got big hits in both Yankee wins, so he gets a pass...this time.

Story of the Week: It was a cold homestand, and we have to hope that a big dose of 30 something-degree weather was at least partly to blame for the Yanks' poor pitching and fielding this week. Still, since it tends to get chilly in October, the Yanks better get used to the cold if they want to achieve their ultimate goal. Until then, they have to hope the starters and defense get back on track.

That's all--we'll keep it short the first week. Enjoy the season!

Razzies for Rasner, Part II

...so Paul Bako--who had 14 homers in 589 games coming into this year, and 46 homers in a pro career dating back to 1993--smashed a homer off Darrell Rasner to give the O's a 5-3 lead, a lead that would hold up for the rest of the afternoon. I'm getting ahead of my week in review here, but it's no secret that the Yankees starting pitching has been a huge disappointment this first week. The Yanks have yet to lead a game through five innings. Darrell Rasner, who I've touted here before, had nothing on Easter Sunday. His fastball was between 86-88 MPH on the Stadium scoreboard, touching 89 on a couple of occasions. And he was trying to bring that stuff up in the zone, which was a recipe for disaster.

More on this tomorrow.

Two other notable features of today's game. The reaction to A-Rod's homer in the first inning was the warmest response I can recall ever hearing for Rodriguez at the Stadium. It's been a long while since I've been to the Stadium without hearing anyone grouse about Alex's salary or nonclutchness...it was nice that that talk was shelved, at least in my section, for a day.

The other thing was the further adventures of Miguel Cairo, major league leftfielder. Cairo was pressed into service--Hideki Matsui's hamstring pull is bad enough he's hitting the DL--and he didn't cost the Yanks much in the outfield; but whenever Cairo appears in the outfield, it's an indication that something has gone very, very wrong with your roster construction. Lineup-wise, having Cairo and Nieves in the lineup at the same time was like putting a speedbump in the Yankees' offense. Erik Bedard's too good of a pitcher to be given that kind of advantage.

More on this when we review the week tomorrow.

This is Why You Stockpile Pitchers

Remember Jeff Karsten's big shot at the Opening Day roster, his chance to get a start or two in during Wang's absence, and maybe be this year's surprising success story? Uh, not so fast. Karstens had to leave his start early on Sunday, suffering from a "stiff elbow." Reader Matty Matty got this one on to the blog before I did--although, in my defense, I did say that Sunday's start was huge for Karstens. It's a shame.

In Karsten's absence, Darrell Rasner--who, might as well be Karsten's professional twin with the Yanks--could pick up that slot. Unless something else goes wrong, that is. That's why the somewhat absurd level of righthanded depth the Yankees acquired this winter makes sense. Mike Mussina's old, and likely to need a breather this season; Andy Pettitte's no spring chicken, and he, too, has been known to break down; Kei Igawa is an unknown quantity, but he throws a ton of pitches, which suggests he might not give the team a titanic number of innings; Can't Play Carl Pavano...well, the name says it all. In the bullpen, Mariano Rivera's up there in years, and coming off an injury that kept him out the last month or so of the regular season; Kyle Farnsworth's a hothouse flower, the days he's not in the trainers room are more remarkable than those when he is dealing with a nagging something-or-other; Scott Proctor pitched a ton of innings last season--his entrance music should be a ticking-clock sound, maybe the effect used in 24. Wang was really the rock of this pitching staff, and he's the guy who got injured first. So while it may be disappointing for a Chris Britton (who had a good season for Baltimore last year) or a Phil Hughes (who many feel has nothing left to prove in the minors) not to break camp with the big club, the advice is "Patience. Your time will come, likely sooner than you think."

****

Other members of the AL East have rosters in flux, too. The Red Sox have reversed their decision to put Jonathan ("Don't Call Me Jon") Papelbon in the starting rotation. The story wasn't that unpredictable, given that the Red Sox closer candidates were Mike Timlin and Joel Piniero. The excuse for keeping Papelbon out of the rotation was that he was "medically not cleared" to close. Suddenly, when no new reliever stepped up to the role, Papelbon apparently got cured. Miraculous!

I also smell a rat in Bill Madden's Daily News column today. As most of you must have heard, Tony LaRussa was busted on a DUI, found unconscious in a car where the engine was running and the car was in gear. Of this incident, Madden says:

As for La Russa, his arrest after being discovered asleep at the wheel of his car while stopped at an intersection around midnight on Thursday was not only unfortunate but totally out of character. Anyone who knows the Cardinals' manager knows he's anything but a big drinker - more like a two-glasses-of-wine-a-night guy, if that. Nor is he one to be out and about in the late night. According to sources close to La Russa, the world championship has resulted in his having to spend a lot more time at dinners and functions this spring and he's tried to accommodate everyone. While it was fortunate he had his foot on the brake pedal and not the gas pedal when he conked out, the fact that his .093 blood alcohol was only a shade above the legal .08 limit suggests he was more exhausted than intoxicated.

What Madden fails to mention is that LaRussa's .093 blood alcohol level was measured about two hours after his arrest, so that was likely not his alcohol level at the time he passed out behind the wheel of his car, endangering himself and the public at large. Madden, who's a hardass about players behaving badly--regardless of whether anyone but the player himself was endangered--is now an apologist for a guy who could have injured a number of people if his foot had slipped off the brake pedal. Nice. I'm not the type to demonize LaRussa for his behavior, but I certainly don't think it's right to bend over backwards to excuse what he did, either, particularly when I've never heard a member of the press concoct a "shades over the legal limit" excuse or a "he must be exhausted from all the dinners and functions he's attended" excuse for any player accused of this crime. At best, LaRussa was irresponsible in getting behind the wheel when he was in no condition to drive; at worst, the police gave LaRussa a break by giving him two hours to sober up before breathalyzing him. But if you're going to simply absolve LaRussa for this, I don't ever want to hear you talk about personal responsibility, ever again.

Whirlwind Tours and Actual News

Just got back from Baseball Prospectus's second annual appearance at the Yogi Berra Museum, on the campus of Montclair State University. The Yogi as we call it, is a great place with a great staff--we're really lucky to have these folks open up their museum to us and let us basically have run of the grounds for a whole day. This time, I was on the panel with twelve other BP authors--Will Carroll, Jay Jaffe, Christina Kahrl, Steve Goldman, Jim Baker, Kevin Goldstein, Clay Davenport, Will Weiss, Neil deMause, Marc Normandin, Ben Murphy, and John Erhardt, who decided to watch the proceedings from the crowd, as did BP.com editor Alex Carnevale and Salon.com's Allen Barra, who was on the panel last year. We did about two and a half hours' worth of talking to (and with) the substantial crowd that made it out Upper Montclair, and afterward we had a rare get-together of a quorum of Prospectus's active workforce at a great restaurant called Gaucho's in Montclair. I hadn't met a number of the guys before, most notably Baker (who has a wonderful, self-deprecating sense of humor), Davenport (who looks quiet, but when he answers a question speaks with that special self-confidence that only scientists display), and Goldstein (who's the very spirit of understatement--it was like being on stage with Dean Martin). Normandin and Murphy look so young, that when I first saw them on the stage I thought they might just be fans who mistakenly followed us to our seats (I hadn't yet been introduced to them).

For me, this was a whirlwind weekend which featured an appearance at the Columbia University bookstore with Goldman, Kahrl, Jaffe, Weiss and deMause on Thursday, and hosting a small party for Alex Belth, Will Carroll, Kahrl, Jaffe and Jay's wife Andra, and his friend Nick Stone and Nick's date. I haven't had this kind of...baseball holiday, for lack of a better word, since I was a teenager playing in the Inwood Table Baseball League, dropping in at Yankee Stadium at gametime and getting good tickets, and going to Strat-o-Matic Tournaments. Definitely good times.

The times are not so good in Tampa, where the big story was Chien Ming Wang's strained hamstring, which will keep the pitcher out for a month. To show you how quickly things move in baseball, Wang came into 2006 hardly assured of a spot in the starting rotation, thirteen months later, he's the Yankees' ace, and news that he's injured is an agita-inducing event. He'll now start the season on the DL, missing at least the first three weeks of the season.

In Wang's absence, it looks like Can't Play Carl Pavano is the Opening Day starter. This is also...unexpected. Not necessarily the optimum circumstances for Can't Play Carl to re-introduce himself to the Yankee Stadium crowd. Apparently, it was judged that given the issues each is dealing with, it wouldn't be a good idea to take Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, or Kei Igawa off their established schedules to pitch the opener against Tampa Bay, a week from Monday.

Of course, the idea of Carl Pavano, Opening Day starter, makes one huge assumption--that Can't Play Carl will somehow survive the last week of Spring Training without turning an ankle, bruising his buttocks, getting knocked unconscious by a line drive, burning the roof of his mouth by eating a microwave pizza too fast, or contracting the deadly Mutaba virus from an illegally-imported capuchin monkey. As always, the attitude with Can't Play Carl should be "I'll believe it when I see it." Heaven willing, I'll be at Yankee Stadium for the opener to make sure that's actually Carl Pavano and not some CGI superimposed by the YES Network.

Wang's (and Pavano's) misfortune is Jeff Karstens' gain, since Karstens looks on track to break camp with the big club. Tomorrow's start against the Tigers could be enough to seal the deal.

In better news, Bobby Murcer is reportedly "clear" of the brain tumor that he was diagnosed with over the holidays. I hope Bobby is well enough to make it out to the Stadium for the opener. If not, he will be in our thoughts, there. It's just good to hear he's feeling better.