After a season in which Melky Cabrera brought numbers (.242/.296/.337) more appropriate to a 1970s shortstop than a 21st Century outfielder to the mix, the Melk-man was finally sent down to the minors, just four days after his 24th birthday. From June 8 to August 13, Melky had hit only .202/.256/.269, with just 8 extra base hits in 209 PA. Many have taken the opportunity to rewrite history, claiming that Cabrera never belonged in the majors, and saying they wouldn't be surprised if he never makes it back. Others have pointed to the celebrated friendship between Melky and another disappointing youngster, Robinson Cano, as an unhealthy situation that's made both players complacent and altogether too party-minded. Any which way, it's hard to tell if this demotion will just be an obstacle, or if it's the beginning of the end for a popular player.
Melky's demotion left a hole in the Yankee defense. For all his struggles with the bat, Cabrera's been an above-average fielder in center. Shifting Johnny Damon to center, and inserting Xavier Nady in left, is a huge net loss for the Yankee defense. Only days before he became a full-time center fielder again, Damon was bragging about how much he loved DHing--not a great sign, for a player the Yanks acquired for his flycatching ability. Nady, who I'd remembered as a decent defender from his time with the Mets, looks utterly unnatural in left field--his routes to balls make late-era Bernie Williams look efficient and instinctive, his arm is awful. Even though the Yankees could likely use him as a late-inning defensive replacement, if nothing else, the Yanks didn't recall Cabrera with the expanded rosters on September 1--a sign that the demotion may be punitive, as well as performance-related.
Showing posts with label Transactions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Transactions. Show all posts
Tuesday, September 02, 2008
Monday, August 25, 2008
Catching Up: Bye-Bye Manny
The Red Sox give up Manny Ramirez (OF) and cash to the Dodgers, get Jason Bay (OF), the Pirates get a refugee raft of prospects.
Beyond X, Marte, and Pudge, the good news of the July trade deadline was Manny Ramirez heading off to Joe Torre's Dodgers, and out of the Yankee's lives barring an extremely unlikely World Series confrontation. The Sox had a million reasons to make this trade: Ramirez had gone into a modified version of Derek Bell's Operation Shutdown, his demands were completely unreasonable, Bay's younger, a better defender, and under contract for next year at a bargain price. The trade made sense for them. But.
Bay, for all his good qualities, is closer to the JD Drew/Mike Lowell level of player than the David Ortiz/Manny Ramirez level. The former are really good players, who can hurt you in a tight spot. The latter were forces of nature who who filled Yankee fans with terror when the game went into the late innings. So I'm glad to see Manny being Manny in Chavez Ravine, rather than in the AL East, if only for the remainder of this season.
Beyond X, Marte, and Pudge, the good news of the July trade deadline was Manny Ramirez heading off to Joe Torre's Dodgers, and out of the Yankee's lives barring an extremely unlikely World Series confrontation. The Sox had a million reasons to make this trade: Ramirez had gone into a modified version of Derek Bell's Operation Shutdown, his demands were completely unreasonable, Bay's younger, a better defender, and under contract for next year at a bargain price. The trade made sense for them. But.
Bay, for all his good qualities, is closer to the JD Drew/Mike Lowell level of player than the David Ortiz/Manny Ramirez level. The former are really good players, who can hurt you in a tight spot. The latter were forces of nature who who filled Yankee fans with terror when the game went into the late innings. So I'm glad to see Manny being Manny in Chavez Ravine, rather than in the AL East, if only for the remainder of this season.
Catching Up: Pudge for Blockhead Kyle
Yanks get Ivan Rodriguez (C), give Kyle Farnsworth (RHP) to the Tigers.
This trade was basically obligatory once Jorge Posada elected to have shoulder surgery, and Jose Molina (.581 OPS when the trade was made) made it abundantly clear that his bat wasn't ready for prime time. Cashman was basically waiting for two years for Farnsworth to have an effective six-week stretch so that he could send Blockhead Kyle away; he got it (Kyle had a 2.25 ERA and 18 Ks in 16 innings from June 11 to the date of the trade) and now Kyle's gone. Considering the number of times the club contemplated giving him away or releasing him, getting a major league player--much less one that fit the club's needs--in return was pure gravy. Could they have done better than Pudge Rodriguez behind the plate? He's basically a better version of Molina, not a complementary player. But you can't beat the price: any of the catchers who were better fits (guys like Greg Zaun or Jarrod Saltamacchia) would have cost the Yanks prospects, and meant that Kyle remained on the roster. We wouldn't want that, would we?
This trade was basically obligatory once Jorge Posada elected to have shoulder surgery, and Jose Molina (.581 OPS when the trade was made) made it abundantly clear that his bat wasn't ready for prime time. Cashman was basically waiting for two years for Farnsworth to have an effective six-week stretch so that he could send Blockhead Kyle away; he got it (Kyle had a 2.25 ERA and 18 Ks in 16 innings from June 11 to the date of the trade) and now Kyle's gone. Considering the number of times the club contemplated giving him away or releasing him, getting a major league player--much less one that fit the club's needs--in return was pure gravy. Could they have done better than Pudge Rodriguez behind the plate? He's basically a better version of Molina, not a complementary player. But you can't beat the price: any of the catchers who were better fits (guys like Greg Zaun or Jarrod Saltamacchia) would have cost the Yanks prospects, and meant that Kyle remained on the roster. We wouldn't want that, would we?
Catching Up: The Nady/Marte Trade
Yanks give: Jose Tabata (OF), Ross Ohlendorf (RHP), Jeff Karstens (RHP), and Dan McCutchen (RHP). Yanks get: Xavier Nady (OF), Damaso Marte (LHP)
The Yankees dealt Jose Tabata at the rock-bottom of his value, after a bad season in AA and a host of disciplinary problems that had resulted in suspensions; the Pirates dealt Nady at the absolute top of his value (the X-man was leading the Pirates in EqA at the time of the trade). The fact that this trade comes out looking pretty even is a minor miracle--the Yanks had been in need of a righthanded outfielder and a lefty reliever for quite a while, and aside from Tabata, the Pittsburgh package is pretty low-ceiling. Folks love Ohlendorf's stuff, but it didn't translate to results this year or last. Karsten's looked pretty good over the past month in the steel city, but that's an illusion created by an incredibly low batting average on balls in play (.218 BABIP). The Yanks just need to keep Nady's career season in perspective--sure, he could be a Luis Gonzalez or Raul Ibanez-style late bloomer, but do you really want to bet on it?
The Yankees dealt Jose Tabata at the rock-bottom of his value, after a bad season in AA and a host of disciplinary problems that had resulted in suspensions; the Pirates dealt Nady at the absolute top of his value (the X-man was leading the Pirates in EqA at the time of the trade). The fact that this trade comes out looking pretty even is a minor miracle--the Yanks had been in need of a righthanded outfielder and a lefty reliever for quite a while, and aside from Tabata, the Pittsburgh package is pretty low-ceiling. Folks love Ohlendorf's stuff, but it didn't translate to results this year or last. Karsten's looked pretty good over the past month in the steel city, but that's an illusion created by an incredibly low batting average on balls in play (.218 BABIP). The Yanks just need to keep Nady's career season in perspective--sure, he could be a Luis Gonzalez or Raul Ibanez-style late bloomer, but do you really want to bet on it?
Tuesday, December 04, 2007
Emptying the Clip
I've got a bad feeling about this. No, I haven't heard any news about Johan Santana, but I did hear about the trade that the Yanks made yesterday--Tyler Clippard gets dealt to the hyperactive Washington Nationals (seriously, can we get Jim Bowden a sedative, or else just keep him away from sugar?) for righthanded reliever Jonathan Albaladejo. I might be overreacting, but I wonder if this is the first domino falling in a cycle where the Yanks unload a good deal of their cache of young pitchers.
Not that Albaladejo's an old man. He just turned 25, which makes him about 2 1/2 years older than Clippard. He turned in a nice 14 or so inning stint with Washington, and I've seen a Nationals blogger (Jon at the Nationals Report) say he has an "electric fastball and a tough makeup." I saw him in the Caribbean Series in February and wasn't impressed by his heat or his poise. Here's what I wrote at the time:
In sunnier news, Project P46 turned out to be a rousing success. According to reports, Andy Pettitte is returning to the Bronx for one more go, and reportedly, the outpouring of fan support was one reason why. Thanks to Steve Lombardi for thinking it up, and thanks to everyone who participated.
Not that Albaladejo's an old man. He just turned 25, which makes him about 2 1/2 years older than Clippard. He turned in a nice 14 or so inning stint with Washington, and I've seen a Nationals blogger (Jon at the Nationals Report) say he has an "electric fastball and a tough makeup." I saw him in the Caribbean Series in February and wasn't impressed by his heat or his poise. Here's what I wrote at the time:
- Jonathan Albaladejo is not as advanced as Castro. At 23 [sic], he’s only gotten as high as AA in the Pittsburgh Pirates organization. He’s 6’5” with a big frame. Sunday night it didn’t look like his fastball was as big as he is (my kingdom for a radar gun!). He got ahead in the count well enough, but showed a tendency to nibble afterward.
- Two on, none out in the bottom of the first: Miguel Tejada got to a one ball, two strike count and then had a batting helmet crisis. After trying on every helmet in the Dominican dugout, Tejada came back to fill the count, which provoked a conference on the mound. Albaladejo looked so serious and tentative it was like he was playing chess with Death. Death won, Tejada walked, and another conference on the mound ensued.
In sunnier news, Project P46 turned out to be a rousing success. According to reports, Andy Pettitte is returning to the Bronx for one more go, and reportedly, the outpouring of fan support was one reason why. Thanks to Steve Lombardi for thinking it up, and thanks to everyone who participated.
Sunday, May 06, 2007
Sunday Surprise
Just got back from the Stadium, a nice 5-0 win that was completely overshadowed by events in the seventh inning. No, I'm not talking the standing about and shouting that stands for a "brawl" in Major League Baseball, I'm talking about the announcement between innings.
It was strange. They cut off "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" abruptly for an announcement by Bob Shepard, saying "Ladies and gentlemen, please turn your attention to the owner's box for an important announcement." The whole thing was so sudden, I halfway expected an announcement that George Steinbrenner had passed away. There was a second of shocked silence that passed through the Stadium when Roger Clemens, in jacket and tie, was shown on the Diamondvision scoreboard approaching the mike. And then came the applause, and more applause. I actually couldn't hear what he said, it got so loud. But then, just in case there was any doubt, the words appeared on the scoreboard: Roger Clemens is a Yankee. Clemens would come back on the screen later to introduce Cotton-Eyed Joe (of all things).
We'll talk repercussions tomorrow during the Week In Review.
After the announcement, I could hardly keep my scorecard going. The game was good, although most of the Yankees runs were scored off Seattle's butt-ugly defense. The official scorer charitably took a couple of errors away from Raul Ibanez, reversing a call on Matsui's sixth-inning fly ball (the reversal in scoring gave Hideki his 2000th professional hit, tallied between his time here and in Japan) and granting a double on a routine fly that Ibanez straight-out dropped in the seventh inning. Darrell Rasner was good...while he lasted. I have trouble seeing how a pitcher's throwing from side to side of the plate, but I could definitely see Rasner moving the hitters' eye levels all over the place. I also saw him in the 90s more often than in his previous starts (although they had him at 94 MPH for one pitch, which is a pretty good time to ask if your radar gun's broken).
As for the "brawl"...ho hum. In the fifth, Josh Phelps absolutely clobbered Kenji Johjima on a play at the plate, just flat-out leveling the Mariner catcher as he waited for the throw from the outfield. In the sixth, predictably, M's pitcher Jarrod Washurn retaliated when Phelps came up to bat again. Then, in the seventh, it seemed Scott Proctor threw inside at shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt, getting Proctor ejected and starting the low-energy milling about...er, I mean, brawl. The ump must have issued a warning when Phelps was hit, but I'm still glad that Proctor at least tried to stand up for his teammate, since--even though I think all this retaliation stuff is pretty juvenile--it seems that the word is going around the league that you can target Yankee hitters with impunity. Still, to call what ensued a "brawl" is a farce. The funniest part is when the bullpens empty, and the pitchers run onto the field. At Yankee Stadium, there's one common entrance to the field for both bullpens. If these guys are spoiling for a fight, how come they're contentedly jogging side-by-side toward the infield, instead of wrestling each other in one giant scrum on the leftfield grass. One of these days the pitchers should do that, if only as a joke.
It was strange. They cut off "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" abruptly for an announcement by Bob Shepard, saying "Ladies and gentlemen, please turn your attention to the owner's box for an important announcement." The whole thing was so sudden, I halfway expected an announcement that George Steinbrenner had passed away. There was a second of shocked silence that passed through the Stadium when Roger Clemens, in jacket and tie, was shown on the Diamondvision scoreboard approaching the mike. And then came the applause, and more applause. I actually couldn't hear what he said, it got so loud. But then, just in case there was any doubt, the words appeared on the scoreboard: Roger Clemens is a Yankee. Clemens would come back on the screen later to introduce Cotton-Eyed Joe (of all things).
We'll talk repercussions tomorrow during the Week In Review.
After the announcement, I could hardly keep my scorecard going. The game was good, although most of the Yankees runs were scored off Seattle's butt-ugly defense. The official scorer charitably took a couple of errors away from Raul Ibanez, reversing a call on Matsui's sixth-inning fly ball (the reversal in scoring gave Hideki his 2000th professional hit, tallied between his time here and in Japan) and granting a double on a routine fly that Ibanez straight-out dropped in the seventh inning. Darrell Rasner was good...while he lasted. I have trouble seeing how a pitcher's throwing from side to side of the plate, but I could definitely see Rasner moving the hitters' eye levels all over the place. I also saw him in the 90s more often than in his previous starts (although they had him at 94 MPH for one pitch, which is a pretty good time to ask if your radar gun's broken).
As for the "brawl"...ho hum. In the fifth, Josh Phelps absolutely clobbered Kenji Johjima on a play at the plate, just flat-out leveling the Mariner catcher as he waited for the throw from the outfield. In the sixth, predictably, M's pitcher Jarrod Washurn retaliated when Phelps came up to bat again. Then, in the seventh, it seemed Scott Proctor threw inside at shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt, getting Proctor ejected and starting the low-energy milling about...er, I mean, brawl. The ump must have issued a warning when Phelps was hit, but I'm still glad that Proctor at least tried to stand up for his teammate, since--even though I think all this retaliation stuff is pretty juvenile--it seems that the word is going around the league that you can target Yankee hitters with impunity. Still, to call what ensued a "brawl" is a farce. The funniest part is when the bullpens empty, and the pitchers run onto the field. At Yankee Stadium, there's one common entrance to the field for both bullpens. If these guys are spoiling for a fight, how come they're contentedly jogging side-by-side toward the infield, instead of wrestling each other in one giant scrum on the leftfield grass. One of these days the pitchers should do that, if only as a joke.
Thursday, January 04, 2007
Randy and Minky: Ships Passing in the Night?
I started hearing the rumors just before 4:00 on Prospectus's internal mailing list, that the Yanks and D'Backs had agreed to a package of players in return for one Randall David Johnson. By the time I got home to check things out, the story was being reported by MLB.com, just with less certainty about the names involved. A short while later, it was on ESPN--confirmations on the names, and that Arizona and Johnson had entered one of those 72 hour negotiating periods--y'know, the ones made infamous a few off-seasons ago when Boston was trying to deal for A-Rod--that meant a deal was in place, just awaiting financial negotiations between the team and player to convince Johnson to waive his no-trade clause.
No one expects Johnson's 72 hours to stretch over more than a week, like the A-Rod negotiations did back in 2003-2004. Newsday's convinced that Johnson's already reached a "back-channel" agreement with his old team on the terms under which they'll reunite. No one is taking these negotiations as a real barrier.
So for all intents and purposes, it's possible that this is a done deal. So let's look at what the Yankees get:
Luis Vizcaino -- A righthanded reliever (yeah, another one), Vizcaino's the veteran portion of the Yanks' haul. Veteran, as in, he's 32 years old, with about seven major league seasons under his belt. He's pitched 410 career innings, all of them in relief. Started out a hard-thrower in the Oakland system, and that's been pretty much his calling card throughout his career. Had some gopherball problems early in his career that he seems to have put in check as he's gotten older. If this deal goes through, Vizcaino's the fifth righty in the pen, sixth if you rank Britton ahead of him, which wouldn't be unreasonable. Hard throwing Dominican reliever coming into his age-32 season? Haven't we seen this before? Steve Phillips, who's been on this story for ESPN, could tell you from experience--trying to corner the market on middle relievers never works. Heck, at least when Phillips tried it with the Mets, he was hoarding lefties, which are relatively rare...
The three prospects alleged to come along with Vizcaino all played most of their ball last season at AA:
Ross Ohlendorf -- Because Mientkiewicz wasn't hard enough to spell, I suppose. Big righthander, with a big fastball but no reliable secondary pitch, which projects him--wait for it--as a reliever. That means the 24 year old joins the teeming righthanded masses including Kevin Wheelan, Jose Veras, TJ Beam, Anthony Claggett, Mark Malencon, JB Cox, Darrell Rasner, and Jeff Karstens, all hoping that one or more of the six righthanded relievers ahead of them on the Yanks' depth chart--Mariano, Scott Proctor, Kyle Farnsworth, Brian Bruney, Vizcaino, and Britton--gets traded, injured, demoted, or simply decides to quit playing baseball.
Alberto Gonzalez -- A smooth-fielding shortstop, Gonzalez has a decent righhanded bat, but not much pop--about a .100 isolated power over the last two years. Could be a utility infielder of the future. At least the Yankees finally dealt for a position player.
Steve Jackson -- ...but that doesn't mean they're not out to get even more righthanded pitchers! At least this one's a starter. Jackson's fastball sits around 91 MPH, topping out around 94, and complemented by a splitter, sinker, and change. Despite a nice 2.65 ERA at Tennessee this season, he isn't considered a top prospect--Kevin Goldstein didn't rank him or the other two prospects in this deal among Arizona's top ten, and John Sickels has the three of them at the bottom of his top 20. Jackson will be 25 before Opening Day, he got raked in the AFL, and he hasn't reached AAA yet. But at least he isn't another relief prospect.
All told, this is far less swag than the visions of Miguel Montero and Alberto Callaspo we had stuck in our heads, or even the more modest talk of higher-tier pitching prospects like Micah Owings and Dustin Nippert. To some, having Randy Johnson gone is motive enough--it would appear that Brian Cashman is among these people. Still, I was hoping the Yanks would make the D'backs squirm a little to get the Unit back, part as payback for the 2001 World Series, the other part as payback for the way they made the Yanks crawl in order to get Johnson in the first place. If this is what they get, it's an opportunity missed. Stay tuned.
****
As alluded above, and mentioned in the linked article, the Yanks have signed Doug Mientkiewicz as their new firstbaseman. It's not a bad deal, part a defense move, part a hedge in case Josh Phelps turns out to be a scrub. The most likely scenario has him platooning with Phelps or Andy Phillips, either on a righty/lefty or offense/defense basis. At a reported $1.5MM, Minky's expendable should a better option come along. Heck, maybe Dougie Spellingerror can teach Matsui to play first base...
Back when Mientkiewicz was the proud possessor of the 2004 World Series game ball, I kept hoping the Yanks would sign Minky, and buy the ball off him as part of the deal. I imagined the Yankees having an elaborate ceremony before their first home game against Boston, where the accursed ball would be presented and destroyed by explosion--like the Bartman ball was, in Chicago. Then the remains of the World Series souvenir would be thrown into the stands, for the right field bleacher fans to floss with.
A man can dream, can't he?
No one expects Johnson's 72 hours to stretch over more than a week, like the A-Rod negotiations did back in 2003-2004. Newsday's convinced that Johnson's already reached a "back-channel" agreement with his old team on the terms under which they'll reunite. No one is taking these negotiations as a real barrier.
So for all intents and purposes, it's possible that this is a done deal. So let's look at what the Yankees get:
Luis Vizcaino -- A righthanded reliever (yeah, another one), Vizcaino's the veteran portion of the Yanks' haul. Veteran, as in, he's 32 years old, with about seven major league seasons under his belt. He's pitched 410 career innings, all of them in relief. Started out a hard-thrower in the Oakland system, and that's been pretty much his calling card throughout his career. Had some gopherball problems early in his career that he seems to have put in check as he's gotten older. If this deal goes through, Vizcaino's the fifth righty in the pen, sixth if you rank Britton ahead of him, which wouldn't be unreasonable. Hard throwing Dominican reliever coming into his age-32 season? Haven't we seen this before? Steve Phillips, who's been on this story for ESPN, could tell you from experience--trying to corner the market on middle relievers never works. Heck, at least when Phillips tried it with the Mets, he was hoarding lefties, which are relatively rare...
The three prospects alleged to come along with Vizcaino all played most of their ball last season at AA:
Ross Ohlendorf -- Because Mientkiewicz wasn't hard enough to spell, I suppose. Big righthander, with a big fastball but no reliable secondary pitch, which projects him--wait for it--as a reliever. That means the 24 year old joins the teeming righthanded masses including Kevin Wheelan, Jose Veras, TJ Beam, Anthony Claggett, Mark Malencon, JB Cox, Darrell Rasner, and Jeff Karstens, all hoping that one or more of the six righthanded relievers ahead of them on the Yanks' depth chart--Mariano, Scott Proctor, Kyle Farnsworth, Brian Bruney, Vizcaino, and Britton--gets traded, injured, demoted, or simply decides to quit playing baseball.
Alberto Gonzalez -- A smooth-fielding shortstop, Gonzalez has a decent righhanded bat, but not much pop--about a .100 isolated power over the last two years. Could be a utility infielder of the future. At least the Yankees finally dealt for a position player.
Steve Jackson -- ...but that doesn't mean they're not out to get even more righthanded pitchers! At least this one's a starter. Jackson's fastball sits around 91 MPH, topping out around 94, and complemented by a splitter, sinker, and change. Despite a nice 2.65 ERA at Tennessee this season, he isn't considered a top prospect--Kevin Goldstein didn't rank him or the other two prospects in this deal among Arizona's top ten, and John Sickels has the three of them at the bottom of his top 20. Jackson will be 25 before Opening Day, he got raked in the AFL, and he hasn't reached AAA yet. But at least he isn't another relief prospect.
All told, this is far less swag than the visions of Miguel Montero and Alberto Callaspo we had stuck in our heads, or even the more modest talk of higher-tier pitching prospects like Micah Owings and Dustin Nippert. To some, having Randy Johnson gone is motive enough--it would appear that Brian Cashman is among these people. Still, I was hoping the Yanks would make the D'backs squirm a little to get the Unit back, part as payback for the 2001 World Series, the other part as payback for the way they made the Yanks crawl in order to get Johnson in the first place. If this is what they get, it's an opportunity missed. Stay tuned.
****
As alluded above, and mentioned in the linked article, the Yanks have signed Doug Mientkiewicz as their new firstbaseman. It's not a bad deal, part a defense move, part a hedge in case Josh Phelps turns out to be a scrub. The most likely scenario has him platooning with Phelps or Andy Phillips, either on a righty/lefty or offense/defense basis. At a reported $1.5MM, Minky's expendable should a better option come along. Heck, maybe Dougie Spellingerror can teach Matsui to play first base...
Back when Mientkiewicz was the proud possessor of the 2004 World Series game ball, I kept hoping the Yanks would sign Minky, and buy the ball off him as part of the deal. I imagined the Yankees having an elaborate ceremony before their first home game against Boston, where the accursed ball would be presented and destroyed by explosion--like the Bartman ball was, in Chicago. Then the remains of the World Series souvenir would be thrown into the stands, for the right field bleacher fans to floss with.
Wednesday, December 27, 2006
Maybe Youse Can Leave?
Last week, I made a one-off comment about the rumors that Randy Johnson had demanded a trade, saying that the whole thing reminded me of a line from A Bronx Tale, where Chazz Palminteri declares to a bunch of rowdy bikers "Now youse can't leave." I figured the Yanks are stuck with the Big Unit, bad back, big money, dropping strikeout numbers, and all.
Turns out that there seems to be some smoke to these rumors, with word that while Johnson didn't demand a trade, a recent family tragedy caused him to mention to Brian Cashman how important living close to his family is to him. Cashman apparently took that as an indication that Johnson would waive his no-trade clause for a deal closer to Johnson's family in Arizona and California, so he started working the phones. And to my surprise, it seems that a number of West Coast teams are interested in taking a run at Randy.
Now, all of this is very much at the rumor stage, and the names of teams--much less players--being bandied around is shadowy. The most concrete one seems to involve the San Diego Padres and their elite middle man, Scott Linebrink. Linebrink's someone the Yanks have liked in the past; the Pads are a contender who could use a high-level starter. But this doesn't make sense in the larger picture--the Yanks have half a dozen righty middle relievers right now, with a few others on the horizon. What they lack is starting pitching, position player prospects, and a firstbaseman who can both field and rake. Another team supposedly in the mix, the Arizona Diamondbacks, have supposedly said that none of their young firstbasemen or top outfield prospects are available in a Johnson deal.
...And so that's the rub. Yankee fans don't trust Johnson to be good (much less great) in 2007, but trading him is a "cents-on-the-dollar" proposition. Complicating this are analyses like this one by Nate Silver on Prospectus's Unfiltered. Here's the money quote:
But, on the other hand, is there anyone who doubts that Johnson needs a change of scenery, and that the Yankees need a change of personnel? Twice the Big Unit has faltered in the playoffs, showing none of the dominance that the Yanks were expecting when he was picked up two years ago. You can't have a big star like him on the roster and not rely on him when it counts--even if he's been ineffective, even if he has a back problem that will require surgery. Maybe in Arizona, or San Diego, or wherever, his back will suddenly be sound, his bone-on-bone knee will stop aching, and he won't have mysterious shoulder pain. Maybe, back in the National League, he'll be an intimidator again. I just don't think any of these things will happen for the Yankees.
So here's to the guys who run the D'backs and Padres being big fans of PECOTA, and the Yankees getting a fair bit of swag for the Big Unit. The farm system is pretty low on position player prospects, and we could still use a firstbaseman. I hope Brian Cashman can make something happen.
****
NOTES
At least we don't have to worry about Shea Hillebrand joining the Yankees now.
It's official: Kei Igawa gets a 5 year, $20 million contract.
After an appeals court ruled that they could be presented to a Grand Jury, it looks like the positive steroids test results from 2003--the year that MLB had confidential survey testing to see if a full steroid testing program should be put in place--are going to be made public in the foreseeable future. Sounds like fun...
Turns out that there seems to be some smoke to these rumors, with word that while Johnson didn't demand a trade, a recent family tragedy caused him to mention to Brian Cashman how important living close to his family is to him. Cashman apparently took that as an indication that Johnson would waive his no-trade clause for a deal closer to Johnson's family in Arizona and California, so he started working the phones. And to my surprise, it seems that a number of West Coast teams are interested in taking a run at Randy.
Now, all of this is very much at the rumor stage, and the names of teams--much less players--being bandied around is shadowy. The most concrete one seems to involve the San Diego Padres and their elite middle man, Scott Linebrink. Linebrink's someone the Yanks have liked in the past; the Pads are a contender who could use a high-level starter. But this doesn't make sense in the larger picture--the Yanks have half a dozen righty middle relievers right now, with a few others on the horizon. What they lack is starting pitching, position player prospects, and a firstbaseman who can both field and rake. Another team supposedly in the mix, the Arizona Diamondbacks, have supposedly said that none of their young firstbasemen or top outfield prospects are available in a Johnson deal.
...And so that's the rub. Yankee fans don't trust Johnson to be good (much less great) in 2007, but trading him is a "cents-on-the-dollar" proposition. Complicating this are analyses like this one by Nate Silver on Prospectus's Unfiltered. Here's the money quote:
I’ve got news for you: the Yankees might not be trading their #4; they might be trading their #1. Johnson’s ERA PECOTAs out at 3.52, which is the best in the Yankee rotation by some margin. You can take that PECOTA with a certain grain of salt because it’s so hard to find appropriate comparables for Johnson. But the names that PECOTA does come up with — Roger Clemens foremost among them — are a reminder that you shouldn’t bet against a great pitcher until you absolutely have to.Now, PECOTA's often smarter than I am, so it's possible Nate's program is just seeing something I don't. But I think it's extremely unlikely that Johnson shaves nearly a run and a half off his 2006 ERA (a perfect 5.00) in 2007. He just hasn't looked that good over the last two years. But if there is something to PECOTA's analysis, then Silver's right: the Yanks can't dump Johnson for little to no return. I'm also pretty scared by the idea that the front office would use the money saved on Johnson as an excuse to open up the vault for Barry Zito on a 100+ million, 5+ year contract.
But, on the other hand, is there anyone who doubts that Johnson needs a change of scenery, and that the Yankees need a change of personnel? Twice the Big Unit has faltered in the playoffs, showing none of the dominance that the Yanks were expecting when he was picked up two years ago. You can't have a big star like him on the roster and not rely on him when it counts--even if he's been ineffective, even if he has a back problem that will require surgery. Maybe in Arizona, or San Diego, or wherever, his back will suddenly be sound, his bone-on-bone knee will stop aching, and he won't have mysterious shoulder pain. Maybe, back in the National League, he'll be an intimidator again. I just don't think any of these things will happen for the Yankees.
So here's to the guys who run the D'backs and Padres being big fans of PECOTA, and the Yankees getting a fair bit of swag for the Big Unit. The farm system is pretty low on position player prospects, and we could still use a firstbaseman. I hope Brian Cashman can make something happen.
****
NOTES
At least we don't have to worry about Shea Hillebrand joining the Yankees now.
It's official: Kei Igawa gets a 5 year, $20 million contract.
After an appeals court ruled that they could be presented to a Grand Jury, it looks like the positive steroids test results from 2003--the year that MLB had confidential survey testing to see if a full steroid testing program should be put in place--are going to be made public in the foreseeable future. Sounds like fun...
Monday, December 18, 2006
A-O-Kei
Word out of Japan is that the Yanks have gotten lefty starter Kei Igawa in the fold, for a reasonable 5 years and $20 million. Well, that and $26 million for the posting fee. All told, the Yanks will spend a prorated $25 million to add Igawa and Andy Pettitte to the fold. One projection system (codenamed CHONE), developed by Angels Blogger Sean Smith (presented here by the Replacement Level Yankee blog), thinks Igawa and Pettitte will be roughly equivalent pitchers in '07--190-odd innings of low-mid fours ERA. If that's what we get, is this a good bargain? If the standard is $11 million for Gil Meche, and $10 million for Ted Lilly...maybe.
Looking for more lefties, the big rumor out there is that Melky Cabrera leaves town, in exchange for Pirates closer Mike Gonzalez, possibly in a three-way with Atlanta. I'd be really sad to see Melky go, for reasons both emotional (Cabrera has endeared himself to Yankee fans with his passionate style of play) and rational (the Yankees jave a fair number of relievers but don't have many young, major league ready position players; trading Cabrera would thin out the Yanks' outfield, leaving no safety net in case one of the starting three gets injured). Also--even though I don't put much stock in these assessments, but lots of fans and media seem to believe that nothing else matters--I seem to recall a fair amount of chatter in Pittsburgh questioning Gonzalez's toughness and ability to handle pressure. We'll leave this one alone, for now.
There's a scene in Robert Deniro's directorial debut, A Bronx Tale, where Chazz Palminteri, playing a local mob boss, steps into a bar that's paying him protection, where a bunch of bikers have been busting up the joint. Palminteri asks the bikers to go; when they refuse, he goes to the front door and locks it, announcing to the bikers "Now youse can't leave." That's the first, word-association type thing that popped into my head when I read this story, about a rumor that Randy Johnson is looking for a trade. Forget for a moment that this story is probably B.S. , fact is that the idea of Johnson requesting a trade is risible beyond belief. So let's see: you force the Arizona Diamondbacks to trade you to a contender; you leverage a big extension from the Yankees; then you proceed to have two of the worst seasons of your career, and help torpedo the team in consecutive Division Series; oh, and you injure your back requiring surgery that makes you iffy for the 2007 season...and now you want a trade?
I'm sorry, Randy, but now youse can't leave. Youse got next to no trade value, and a huge salary of which the Yanks would have to eat a whole bunch, just to accommodate such a request. No thanks.
By the way, I love the Cashman quote from that article, which almost perfectly hangs Johnson out to dry, while still denying the rumor: "He hasn't called me officially and asked me to trade him, no." Leaving open the possibilities of informal trade requests by means other than a personal phone call.
Changing gears, I'm going into baseball withdrawal this winter, and I only see one cure: winter league baseball, preferably from the Dominican Winter League. ESPN Deportes carries Dominican League action, but I'm once again shocked to find that Time Warner Cable, the cable carrier which serves possibly the largest Dominican enclave in the U.S.--the community in Washington Heights and Upper Manhattan--doesn't carry ESPN Deportes. They carry literally dozens of channels on their digital television service that no one watches, and a whole block of channels--the 800s--in Spanish, including the baseball-free Fox Sports en Espanol. But they can't be bothered to bring Dominican League action to arvid baseball fans.
In order to request a channel be added to Time Warner's lineup, you have to send snailmail to one of their VPs. Requests by email, which I've already made, are not entertained. So I'm going to ask any of you out there who are Time Warner New York subscribers to join me in putting pen to paper and investing $0.39 worth of postage to let people know that you care about baseball, and that you want more of it on TV. Send all letters to:
Robert Watson
VP Programming, New Business Development
Time Warner Cable
120 E. 23rd Street, 9th Floor
New York, NY 10010
The usual rules of letter-writing campaigns apply: be polite, be brief and be clear about what you're asking for--in this case, that ESPN Deportes be carried by Time Warner Cable throughout New York City, specifically for the value of its Winter League baseball programming. It's a good deed, a way of making your voice heard as a baseball fan, and a way of keeping me from slipping into the usual withdrawal symptoms (depression, catatonia) that follow whenever I don't get enough baseball in my diet. If none of that's persuasive, think of this as your Christmas present to baseball fans throughout the five boroughs (but specifically, for my sake, Manhattan).
Looking for more lefties, the big rumor out there is that Melky Cabrera leaves town, in exchange for Pirates closer Mike Gonzalez, possibly in a three-way with Atlanta. I'd be really sad to see Melky go, for reasons both emotional (Cabrera has endeared himself to Yankee fans with his passionate style of play) and rational (the Yankees jave a fair number of relievers but don't have many young, major league ready position players; trading Cabrera would thin out the Yanks' outfield, leaving no safety net in case one of the starting three gets injured). Also--even though I don't put much stock in these assessments, but lots of fans and media seem to believe that nothing else matters--I seem to recall a fair amount of chatter in Pittsburgh questioning Gonzalez's toughness and ability to handle pressure. We'll leave this one alone, for now.
There's a scene in Robert Deniro's directorial debut, A Bronx Tale, where Chazz Palminteri, playing a local mob boss, steps into a bar that's paying him protection, where a bunch of bikers have been busting up the joint. Palminteri asks the bikers to go; when they refuse, he goes to the front door and locks it, announcing to the bikers "Now youse can't leave." That's the first, word-association type thing that popped into my head when I read this story, about a rumor that Randy Johnson is looking for a trade. Forget for a moment that this story is probably B.S. , fact is that the idea of Johnson requesting a trade is risible beyond belief. So let's see: you force the Arizona Diamondbacks to trade you to a contender; you leverage a big extension from the Yankees; then you proceed to have two of the worst seasons of your career, and help torpedo the team in consecutive Division Series; oh, and you injure your back requiring surgery that makes you iffy for the 2007 season...and now you want a trade?
I'm sorry, Randy, but now youse can't leave. Youse got next to no trade value, and a huge salary of which the Yanks would have to eat a whole bunch, just to accommodate such a request. No thanks.
By the way, I love the Cashman quote from that article, which almost perfectly hangs Johnson out to dry, while still denying the rumor: "He hasn't called me officially and asked me to trade him, no." Leaving open the possibilities of informal trade requests by means other than a personal phone call.
Changing gears, I'm going into baseball withdrawal this winter, and I only see one cure: winter league baseball, preferably from the Dominican Winter League. ESPN Deportes carries Dominican League action, but I'm once again shocked to find that Time Warner Cable, the cable carrier which serves possibly the largest Dominican enclave in the U.S.--the community in Washington Heights and Upper Manhattan--doesn't carry ESPN Deportes. They carry literally dozens of channels on their digital television service that no one watches, and a whole block of channels--the 800s--in Spanish, including the baseball-free Fox Sports en Espanol. But they can't be bothered to bring Dominican League action to arvid baseball fans.
In order to request a channel be added to Time Warner's lineup, you have to send snailmail to one of their VPs. Requests by email, which I've already made, are not entertained. So I'm going to ask any of you out there who are Time Warner New York subscribers to join me in putting pen to paper and investing $0.39 worth of postage to let people know that you care about baseball, and that you want more of it on TV. Send all letters to:
Robert Watson
VP Programming, New Business Development
Time Warner Cable
120 E. 23rd Street, 9th Floor
New York, NY 10010
The usual rules of letter-writing campaigns apply: be polite, be brief and be clear about what you're asking for--in this case, that ESPN Deportes be carried by Time Warner Cable throughout New York City, specifically for the value of its Winter League baseball programming. It's a good deed, a way of making your voice heard as a baseball fan, and a way of keeping me from slipping into the usual withdrawal symptoms (depression, catatonia) that follow whenever I don't get enough baseball in my diet. If none of that's persuasive, think of this as your Christmas present to baseball fans throughout the five boroughs (but specifically, for my sake, Manhattan).
Wednesday, December 13, 2006
Wednesday Links: Non-Tender Is the Night
A few notes for hump day:
Putting Out the Welcome D-Mat: After it sounded like Scott Boras, agent for Japanese pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, had drawn a line in the sand around his client getting $100 million in compensation, reports are now that a deal's been done, with Matsuzaka getting almost half of that on a five-year deal. The word is that D-Mat and agent are on a flight to the East Coast for a physical, and Sox fans are actually watching the plane's progress, cross-country. As a baseball fan, I hope that Matsuzaka's the next Roy Oswalt; as a Yankee fan, I say two words: Hideki Irabu.
Watching Boras fold like this has been a traumatic experience. I guess there are no more heroes anymore.
Bye-Bye Aaron Guiel: Last night was the deadline for teams to offer arbitration to the arb-eligible players under their control. For the Yankees, that meant saying good-bye to outfielder Aaron Guiel. We hardly knew ye, but the Yanks are currently stacked with outfielders, given a starting trio of lefthanded hitters Bobby Abreu/Johnny Damon/Hideki Matsui, and fourth outfielder switch-hitter Melky Cabrera. Guiel, a lefty bat, didn't quite fit in in a scheme where you'd probably want a good righthanded bat if you're going to carry five outfielders.
Phelps Profiled: Speaking of righthanded bats, Marc Normandin at Baseball Prospectus has an in-depth look at Josh Phelps, the Rule 5 Yankee. A taste:
Frivolities Gallore: Most mashups have been disappointing, since the big Shining-as-family-comedy trailer that got the current craze going, but this one, where Toy Story 2 meets Requiem for a Dream, is too funny for words (WARNING: contains language inappropriate for children).
Putting Out the Welcome D-Mat: After it sounded like Scott Boras, agent for Japanese pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, had drawn a line in the sand around his client getting $100 million in compensation, reports are now that a deal's been done, with Matsuzaka getting almost half of that on a five-year deal. The word is that D-Mat and agent are on a flight to the East Coast for a physical, and Sox fans are actually watching the plane's progress, cross-country. As a baseball fan, I hope that Matsuzaka's the next Roy Oswalt; as a Yankee fan, I say two words: Hideki Irabu.
Watching Boras fold like this has been a traumatic experience. I guess there are no more heroes anymore.
Bye-Bye Aaron Guiel: Last night was the deadline for teams to offer arbitration to the arb-eligible players under their control. For the Yankees, that meant saying good-bye to outfielder Aaron Guiel. We hardly knew ye, but the Yanks are currently stacked with outfielders, given a starting trio of lefthanded hitters Bobby Abreu/Johnny Damon/Hideki Matsui, and fourth outfielder switch-hitter Melky Cabrera. Guiel, a lefty bat, didn't quite fit in in a scheme where you'd probably want a good righthanded bat if you're going to carry five outfielders.
Phelps Profiled: Speaking of righthanded bats, Marc Normandin at Baseball Prospectus has an in-depth look at Josh Phelps, the Rule 5 Yankee. A taste:
The Yankees more than likely did not pick up a player who is going to slug .500 in the majors over the course of a full season, but Phelps can still contribute. He seems to have regained some of his plate patience, walking in 7.2 percent of all plate appearances for Toledo, and he mashed left-handers to the tune of .322/.382/.638 in 152 at-bats this past year − .294/.358/.502 in his major league career − something Jason Giambi has not been able to do exceptionally well from 2004-2006.
Frivolities Gallore: Most mashups have been disappointing, since the big Shining-as-family-comedy trailer that got the current craze going, but this one, where Toy Story 2 meets Requiem for a Dream, is too funny for words (WARNING: contains language inappropriate for children).
Monday, December 11, 2006
Bullet Points: Andy Pettitte Edition
Just a few short notes to start off the week:
- Andy Pettitte's two years and $32 million is the exact size of the extension the Yanks gave Randy Johnson, when he came to the Bronx. It's a shame the Yanks didn't get Johnson to agree to a secret handshake agreement that he wouldn't exercise his option for that second year if injured.
- I don't remember stories like this one about sexual assault allegations around the Yankees back in 2001. Was this actually reported then?
- Word is that the Cardinals are looking at picking up Carl Pavano, but would like to wade through the first few volumes of his medical records, first (hat tip to Repoz at BTF). While any opportunity to dump PavaNO! would be welcome, the fact is that if the Yanks pick up even a fraction of the money (and I assume they'd have to pick up some salary) Pavano could be a perfect fit for St. Louis and pitching coach Dave Duncan. Duncan seems to love veteran reclamation projects, particularly the ones who can throw the ball over the plate and make batters put the ball in play--see Jeff Weaver if you're not sure what I'm talking about.
- In other news, the Yanks have reportedly signed lefty-hittin OF/1B Juan Miranda, a Cuban defector, to a four-year, $2 million deal. Miranda, supposedly 23, doesn't seem to have played during the last two years, since he escaped Cuba by raft. We don't know much about Miranda, but presumably he won't be ready for the Show straight off and should start the season in the minors. The last time I looked, his Cuban numbers were comparable to another cuban defector's, Kendry Morales's. But I wonder what on Earth took so long for this kid to sign if he's actually got the goods.
- If Miranda's the real deal--huge friggin' "if"--he could work his way into the first base conversation that currently involves Andy Phillips, Josh Phelps, and free agents Shea Hillebrand and/or Dougie Spellingerror. The short-order rundown: Phillips hasn't proven himself, despite getting a decent shot this summer; Phelps has an intriguing bat but the quality of his glove is unknown; Hillebrand's a bellyacher with an overrated bat, pass, please; Mientkiewicz's whole appeal is his glove, and there is some indication that he's not what he once was with the leather--BP's stats show him trending down the last three years, but zone-rating based metrics like Chris Dial's say he's still the shizzle. Since the emphases are on getting a righthanded bat and/or someone with better glovework than Jason Giambi's, Phelps and Mientkiewicz would be good choices (but then you're burning three roster spots on first base/DH, only).
Sunday, December 10, 2006
Back In the Fold
You've probably heard by now, that Andy Pettitte is back in pinstripes, after supposedly ending his Yankee career on not-so-good terms with the front office three years ago. Back then, the Yanks seemed too eager to let Andy go home to Texas, and I was ambivalent about the fact that the Yanks' homegrown mainstay pitcher had decided to go home. Actually, it was a little more upsetting when he took recently "retired" Roger Clemens with him.
Andy comes back three years later, having posted a 37-26 record with the Astros, 520.7 innings of 3.38 ERA ball, in a hard home stadium for lefty pitchers (Minute Maid Field has an inviting short porch in left field). It broke down this way: in 2004, Pettitte pitched less than half a season, troubled by elbow problems; in 2005, he was a CyYoung candidate, 17-9, 2.39 ERA; in 2006, a mediore 14-13 with a 4.20 ERA--Pettitte's control slipped and his walks doubled from last year to this year. Looking at these numbers from the Yankees' perspective, you have to remember that Pettitte was playing in an easier league without a DH, even though he was pitching in a bandbox.
Still, when we look at the Yanks' 2 year, $32 million deal with Pettitte--sure, the deal is technically for one year, but you have to count that player option as guaranteed money, unless Andy decides to leave it on the table--the important thing is to look at the market in which it was made. Sure, $16 million is a lot to pay for a pitcher, and some may say, better had the Yanks paid that premium in 2003 than in 2006. Still, you have to like Pettitte at 2 years and $32 million more than giving Ted Lilly the Pavano Contract (4/$40M) or Gil Meche the Darren Dreifort Contract (5/$55M). Not only is the Yanks' exposure smaller with Pettitte, he's the devil you know, personality-wise, injury issues-wise, and performance-wise.
And all of that comes without mentioning Andy's not-so-little friend. I predict now that Roger Clemens will be sitting on the sidelines as the season starts, like Mifune in Yojimbo (I don't remember if they re-did that scene with Clint Eastwood in A Fistful of Dollars). Rather than sign with any team that offers the most money, Clemens can just wait to see how the little things shake out--you know, how does Randy Johnson look after back surgery, and whatnot. And it could mean big money for him.
Andy comes back three years later, having posted a 37-26 record with the Astros, 520.7 innings of 3.38 ERA ball, in a hard home stadium for lefty pitchers (Minute Maid Field has an inviting short porch in left field). It broke down this way: in 2004, Pettitte pitched less than half a season, troubled by elbow problems; in 2005, he was a CyYoung candidate, 17-9, 2.39 ERA; in 2006, a mediore 14-13 with a 4.20 ERA--Pettitte's control slipped and his walks doubled from last year to this year. Looking at these numbers from the Yankees' perspective, you have to remember that Pettitte was playing in an easier league without a DH, even though he was pitching in a bandbox.
Still, when we look at the Yanks' 2 year, $32 million deal with Pettitte--sure, the deal is technically for one year, but you have to count that player option as guaranteed money, unless Andy decides to leave it on the table--the important thing is to look at the market in which it was made. Sure, $16 million is a lot to pay for a pitcher, and some may say, better had the Yanks paid that premium in 2003 than in 2006. Still, you have to like Pettitte at 2 years and $32 million more than giving Ted Lilly the Pavano Contract (4/$40M) or Gil Meche the Darren Dreifort Contract (5/$55M). Not only is the Yanks' exposure smaller with Pettitte, he's the devil you know, personality-wise, injury issues-wise, and performance-wise.
And all of that comes without mentioning Andy's not-so-little friend. I predict now that Roger Clemens will be sitting on the sidelines as the season starts, like Mifune in Yojimbo (I don't remember if they re-did that scene with Clint Eastwood in A Fistful of Dollars). Rather than sign with any team that offers the most money, Clemens can just wait to see how the little things shake out--you know, how does Randy Johnson look after back surgery, and whatnot. And it could mean big money for him.
Thursday, December 07, 2006
Yanks Pick Former BP Coverboy
First real news in a week: the Rule 5 Draft happened today, and for the first time I can remember, the Yanks made a pick. Rule 5 allows a dispersal draft of certain eligible players left off 40 man rosters, so long as the drafting team a) pays $50,000, and b) keeps the player on the major league (25 man) roster for the following season.
So the Yanks' pickup is Josh Phelps--yes, the cover boy of Baseball Prospectus 2003. Phelps is a DH/first baseman, a righthanded hitter with lots of power who never really has gotten a proper chance. Phelps's career numbers: .268/.336/.473 with 57 homers in about 1,300 major league plate appearances. In a nine-year minor league career, he has an impressive .236 isolated power (that's slugging percentage minus batting average). Everything points to this guy being able to rake, at least a better than Andy Phillips.
The best thing is, Phelps might obviate the Yanks' desire for Richie Sexon--this off-season's scary Yankee rumor. Sexon's clearly a better hitter than Phelps, but he's also 3 1/2 years older and about $11 million more expensive. Phelps also will not cost the Yanks anything in terms of talent in trade. The big questions are, can Phelps field at first base or even (gasp!) catcher well enough to make him a worthwhile guy to have on the roster? After all, if you're carrying around Phelps as a righthanded DH and Phillips as a defensive sub at first, you're really wasting a roster spot.
I first heard about Phelps's acquisition from Brother Joe through Baseball Prospectus's newest feature, the BP:Unfiltered blog. The blog is an opportunity for BP's writers (including, eventually, me) to share quick thoughts with the public. Best of all, it's free.
More later...
So the Yanks' pickup is Josh Phelps--yes, the cover boy of Baseball Prospectus 2003. Phelps is a DH/first baseman, a righthanded hitter with lots of power who never really has gotten a proper chance. Phelps's career numbers: .268/.336/.473 with 57 homers in about 1,300 major league plate appearances. In a nine-year minor league career, he has an impressive .236 isolated power (that's slugging percentage minus batting average). Everything points to this guy being able to rake, at least a better than Andy Phillips.
The best thing is, Phelps might obviate the Yanks' desire for Richie Sexon--this off-season's scary Yankee rumor. Sexon's clearly a better hitter than Phelps, but he's also 3 1/2 years older and about $11 million more expensive. Phelps also will not cost the Yanks anything in terms of talent in trade. The big questions are, can Phelps field at first base or even (gasp!) catcher well enough to make him a worthwhile guy to have on the roster? After all, if you're carrying around Phelps as a righthanded DH and Phillips as a defensive sub at first, you're really wasting a roster spot.
I first heard about Phelps's acquisition from Brother Joe through Baseball Prospectus's newest feature, the BP:Unfiltered blog. The blog is an opportunity for BP's writers (including, eventually, me) to share quick thoughts with the public. Best of all, it's free.
More later...
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
Dr. Kei
The Yankees have won the rights to sign Hanshin Tigers lefthander Kei Igawa, nicknamed "Dr. Kei" in Japan. As the name suggests, Igawa has been a strikeout pitcher for the Tigers, leading the Nippon League's Central League in strikeouts three out of the last six seasons, including this past season. In 2003, he was the Central Leagues' Cy Young and MVP. He's the ace of his team, one of the best pitchers in Japan, and he's 27 years old, so he should be in his prime.
Those are the positives. Igawa reportedly posted for $26 million; or roughly half of what the Red Sox paid to secure Daisuke Matsuzaka's negotiating rights. But Matsuzaka was considered one of those special talents--the guys who are all the way on the righthand side of the bell curve: a Roger Clemens, or Pedro Martinez, or Johan Santana. They're worth a premium. Igawa isn't considered half the talent that Matsuzaka is, even if he has enough talent to be a top performer in Japan. The scouting description of Igawa's pitches: high 80s-low 90s fastball (looks like he throws both a four-seamer and a two-seamer), plus change, average slider, curve he only shows to lefties--this is not an incredibly rare combination. Sure, there's more to pitching than velocity, and the assesment of Igawa is based mainly on his appearance in the MLB/Japan All-Star matchup earlier this month--an exhibition in which Igawa pitched after a six-week layoff.
The comparison I've seen most often is David Wells, but wells never profiled as a big strikeout guy, and Igawa doesn't look to have David's pinpoint control. Say the fact, no one comes to mind that really resembles him--you don't see many lefties get big strikeout numbers who can't crank the fastball into the 90s, and most of the successful lefties starters don't throw up in the zone as much as Igawa does. Pitchers that came to mind when I was watching him were guys like Doug Davis, Jim Abbott, or maybe Andy Pettitte.
Anyway, the Yanks' high bid for Igawa sounds like a "me, too" move, after the Red Sox won the bidding on Matsuzaka. They've now got the second-best pitcher available, but a guy who is probably not in the first-best pitcher's league, and they've paid as much to get these negotiating rights as most people figured that Matsuzaka's negotiating rights would go for. It could be that this is the new market for pitching--contracts are getting more expensive, so it's worth more to acquire exclusive rights to negotiate with a given player.
Or it could be that the Yanks are higher on Igawa than the scouting report would suggest--in the 2004 Baseball Prospectus annual, Clay Davenport translated Igawa's performance to a 4.08 ERA--comparable to the 3.93 translated ERA he got for Matsuzaka. Still, even that comparison saw Matsuzaka as one baserunner per nine innings and one strikeout per nine better than Igawa--and the trend lines have diverged substantially since then.
The last option is that the Yanks panicked, were purely in a defensive mode, put back on their heels after misjudging the market for Matsuzaka by some $20 million. This makes some sense, but it's important to remember that this money is not worth the same to the Yankees as it is to other teams because of the luxury tax. Since for every dollar of salary the Yankees pick up, they have to pay $0.40 to the Major League Central Fund, every non-taxable dollar the Yankees spend on player acquisitions is really only worth about $0.71. So that $26 million posting feeis the same as a $18.6 million contract expenditure for the Yankees--this is closer in line with the Mets' reported bid of $15 million (the Mets are unlikely to have to pay any luxury tax this season, so they don't get a discount). The Yanks expect to sign Igawa for far less than the eight figure-per-year salary Scott Boras is looking to get D-Mat--some are reporting it could be as little as $4.5 million per season over four years. Under those terms, the Yankees' outlay would be in line with a four-year, $31 million contract.
So the key is to keep expectations low. Despite his nickname, we're not looking at a Dwight Gooden-type phenom, here. The hope is a competent back-of-the-rotation starter, someone who can give you innings. Someone better than Ted Lilly. Because if we get our hopes farther up than that, Igawa might need to show his second nickname: Iron Nerves.
***
Those are the positives. Igawa reportedly posted for $26 million; or roughly half of what the Red Sox paid to secure Daisuke Matsuzaka's negotiating rights. But Matsuzaka was considered one of those special talents--the guys who are all the way on the righthand side of the bell curve: a Roger Clemens, or Pedro Martinez, or Johan Santana. They're worth a premium. Igawa isn't considered half the talent that Matsuzaka is, even if he has enough talent to be a top performer in Japan. The scouting description of Igawa's pitches: high 80s-low 90s fastball (looks like he throws both a four-seamer and a two-seamer), plus change, average slider, curve he only shows to lefties--this is not an incredibly rare combination. Sure, there's more to pitching than velocity, and the assesment of Igawa is based mainly on his appearance in the MLB/Japan All-Star matchup earlier this month--an exhibition in which Igawa pitched after a six-week layoff.
The comparison I've seen most often is David Wells, but wells never profiled as a big strikeout guy, and Igawa doesn't look to have David's pinpoint control. Say the fact, no one comes to mind that really resembles him--you don't see many lefties get big strikeout numbers who can't crank the fastball into the 90s, and most of the successful lefties starters don't throw up in the zone as much as Igawa does. Pitchers that came to mind when I was watching him were guys like Doug Davis, Jim Abbott, or maybe Andy Pettitte.
Anyway, the Yanks' high bid for Igawa sounds like a "me, too" move, after the Red Sox won the bidding on Matsuzaka. They've now got the second-best pitcher available, but a guy who is probably not in the first-best pitcher's league, and they've paid as much to get these negotiating rights as most people figured that Matsuzaka's negotiating rights would go for. It could be that this is the new market for pitching--contracts are getting more expensive, so it's worth more to acquire exclusive rights to negotiate with a given player.
Or it could be that the Yanks are higher on Igawa than the scouting report would suggest--in the 2004 Baseball Prospectus annual, Clay Davenport translated Igawa's performance to a 4.08 ERA--comparable to the 3.93 translated ERA he got for Matsuzaka. Still, even that comparison saw Matsuzaka as one baserunner per nine innings and one strikeout per nine better than Igawa--and the trend lines have diverged substantially since then.
The last option is that the Yanks panicked, were purely in a defensive mode, put back on their heels after misjudging the market for Matsuzaka by some $20 million. This makes some sense, but it's important to remember that this money is not worth the same to the Yankees as it is to other teams because of the luxury tax. Since for every dollar of salary the Yankees pick up, they have to pay $0.40 to the Major League Central Fund, every non-taxable dollar the Yankees spend on player acquisitions is really only worth about $0.71. So that $26 million posting feeis the same as a $18.6 million contract expenditure for the Yankees--this is closer in line with the Mets' reported bid of $15 million (the Mets are unlikely to have to pay any luxury tax this season, so they don't get a discount). The Yanks expect to sign Igawa for far less than the eight figure-per-year salary Scott Boras is looking to get D-Mat--some are reporting it could be as little as $4.5 million per season over four years. Under those terms, the Yankees' outlay would be in line with a four-year, $31 million contract.
So the key is to keep expectations low. Despite his nickname, we're not looking at a Dwight Gooden-type phenom, here. The hope is a competent back-of-the-rotation starter, someone who can give you innings. Someone better than Ted Lilly. Because if we get our hopes farther up than that, Igawa might need to show his second nickname: Iron Nerves.
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- You'll notice I wasn't talking about the Yankees receiving a kickback from Hanshin. That's because major league baseball has carefully spelled out that there's no kickbacks allowed. Now, the fact that kickbacks aren't allowed doesn't stop it from happening in a number of other real-world industries and contexts, but for now, we'll take MLB at its word and hope that the Yanks and Red Sox don't try to cheat on their posting bids.
- Speaking of the Red Sox, I'm quoted in Maury Brown's Biz of Baseball website with regard to the negotiation strategy of Scott Boras. Here's a link, and here's a blurb:
My contention is that it is in the Lions' best interest to get this deal done. It also is in Scott Boras’ best interest, as well, as this year sees a shallow free agency pool, and the aforementioned spike in salary figures. Next off-season sees a far deeper pool of talent, and it may well be that the giddy nature of owners, coupled with clubs like the Cubs driving values up, dissipating. Sending Matsuzaka back to the Lions would be embarrassing for Matsuzaka, and would bring up all kinds of questions about the entire posting process.
That is a case if Boras is just thinking of the Matsuzaka deal in a vacuum.Derek Jacques, another one of my Baseball Prospectus colleagues plays devil’s advocate when it comes to Boras. It may be that Barry Zito, another Boras client, fits into the equation, as well.
Jacques counters my point by saying:
I don't know if it's in Boras's best interests to make this fly. Boras's M.O. has been to use his clients to set new salary standards--which then benefit his other clients, and by association, his bottom line. He's done this to the point of occasionally sacrificing a particular client rather than missing an opportunity to set the market. I presume it wouldn't fit into this strategy if part of Matsuzaka's compensation were hidden through Seibu--if he takes a below-market bid on Matsuzaka, he can't use that contract to get the Mets to bid up on Barry Zito. It might be better for Boras if Matsuzaka hits the free agent market next off-season, so he can get a bidding war going without the posting fee complicating things.
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