Who Do You Trust?

I was going to break my blog-silence in a more official and positive fashion, but I wasn't quite done with that piece (which should run tomorrow) when the latest 2003 steroid test leaks came out (courtesy of the New York Times), and I had to say something.

You see, I've been waiting for this story a long time. Remember when the BALCO grand jury testimony leaked, and folks lined up to beat Jason Giambi like a piñata? Remember the folks who swung the sticks with just a little extra gusto, because he was a Yankee? Remember when the Mitchell Report came out, implicating Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte? To most baseball fans, it was a dark moment in the game's history; to a lucky few, it was a day of jubilee. A National holiday, if you would.

We're not even going to talk about the Alex Rodriguez revelations earlier this year. Each time the gloating started, each time people geared up to cheer "STEROIDS" when the Yanks came to Beantown, my reaction was the same. Wait. Just you wait.

Because you had to figure this day was coming. Those Red Sox fans who chose to act superior on this issue were throwing their stones while sitting in a glass ballpark. Did they think the Red Sox were the one team in baseball to "just say no" to performance enhancement? Didn't they ever look at the middle of their own lineup? I grew up in Washington Heights, so I can attest that Manny Ramirez was always a big guy. But he wasn't as big as he got when he arrived in Boston. Meanwhile, it was always surprising that the same people who self-righteously obsessed over Roger Clemens's hat size never seemed to have looked at David Ortiz's noggin, ever.

When Manny Ramirez caught a PED suspension earlier this year, it was a blow for the more sanctimonious members of the RSN, but they'd also dodged a bullet. Ramirez had already been repudiated by the Sox and most of their fans when he was suspended. The Red Sox wound up looking good for jettisoning Manny, headcase and now cheater, before he was caught.

What some people missed in Manny's suspension was that he pretty much admitted that he was one of the 104 players who'd flunked MLB's 2003 survey testing. At the time, the Players Association released a statement on Manny's behalf which included the following: "I do want to say one other thing; I've taken and passed about 15 drug tests over the past five seasons." That might sound like a strident declaration of innocence--but only if you didn't know that there were drug tests prior to the past five seasons. When you remembered that, it sounded more like a confession by omission.

Now, even if you accepted that Manny was a juicer, and that he likely was during his Sox tenure, it wasn't that big a black eye on the franchise, because you could just add it to the list of eccentricities known as "Manny being Manny." Heck, for most of his time in Boston, Ramirez was treated as if he was a child or mentally disabled--someone you couldn't hold responsible for his own actions. It's a different matter with David Ortiz, who's never been infantilized by baseball fans the way Manny or (to a lesser extent) Sammy Sosa were. Even Ortiz's nickname gives the impression of responsibility and adulthood; he's been one of the most respected players in the game. That's why this is big news.

Look, the point here isn't that I'm happy about this. I'm not. Even though he plays for the Red Sox, I've always admired Ortiz. As a Dominican-American, I'm not happy to see more Dominicans ensnared in this PED mess. Also, it's not like Ortiz and Ramirez's failings expiate Clemens, Pettitte, Giambi or A-Rod.

Furthermore, I can understand the pressure on Ortiz to get on the juice. You have to remember that at the time of the survey testing, Ortiz had washed out of the major leagues with the Twins. He had been non-tendered, and he was facing a battle for playing time with a number of other 1B/DH types with the Sox, including BALCO juicer Jeremy Giambi. At the same time the CBA basically created a "first positive test is free" environment that year. The disincentives against steroid use were as low as they would ever be (unless you predicted that law enforcement would intervene in the destruction of the survey tests and unscrupulous lawyers would leak names to the media).

The point isn't that Ortiz is a bad person, it's that it's pretty hard to know with certainty who the "good people" are in the Steroid Era. After Barry Bonds broke Hank Aaron's record, everyone looked to Alex Rodriguez; he would be the guy who erased Bonds from the record book, giving baseball a "clean" career home run leader. That lasted less than two years, until Selena Roberts got a few guys to spill the beans, under veil of anonymity, of course.

Even after A-Rod, everybody has someone they point to, claiming that this is the guy who did things "the right way" while everyone else was giving in to temptation. Until Thursday morning, some folks pointed to David Ortiz in that way. Others stake their reputations on Albert Pujols being clean, or on Junior Griffey or Ryan Howard or Jim Thome or Chipper Jones. But with due respect to all of those guys--none of whom has been implicated of anything, as far as I know--the simple fact is, you can't know that they're clean. You might think or believe they are. You can ask them, and you can take their word for it, and you can note that so-and-so's a straight shooter and what's-his-name's a good guy. You could still be wrong.

David Ortiz is, by all accounts, a good guy. So was Mark McGwire. So, I would think, are many of the 97 remaining players on the 2003 survey testing list whose identities have not, as yet, been revealed. Should the rest of those names come to light--and that seems inevitable, either in one lump sum by court order, or by dribs and drabs every March, July, and October, as pointed out by Brother Joe--we'll have more villains to point at and jeer and feel superior to, but will those not named be exonerated? Will we suddenly have confidence in the MLB testing program's efficacy, and declare the game clean?

Yesterday the Red Sox joined a group that includes, but is not limited to, the Yankees, Giants, and Dodgers on the list of clubs who've really lived under the shadow of PED--with a valued star who's still on the roster and whose exploits fans will still cheer marked as tainted. Now Red Sox fans get to discover things some of the fans of those teams have already gone through: the "maybe it was just that one time," the "maybe the test results were wrong," the "that reporter is an unethical scumbag," the potluck of rationalization, denial, recrimination, and acceptance. The loss of trust. Welcome to the club.

Good News, Links, and Tonight's Meetup

It's already been an eventful spring down in Tampa , with all eyes watching the Yanks' pitching young 'uns like hawks. Protective mother hawks. But the best news of the spring has been the negative biopsy Bobby Murcer received this week, showing that what some thought could have been a recurrence of his brain cancer was actually scar tissue. Surviving cancer is a day-by-day thing, but I'm glad to hear that we'll have the chance to enjoy some more days with Bobby. You can't ask for much better than that.

Anyway, I'll be at the Barnes and Noble on Fifth Avenue tonight at 6:00 (150 Fifth Avenue, & 18th Street). Being on a panel with Joe Sheehan, Steve Goldman and Jay Jaffe means being guaranteed that no one will ask you a question, but I'll fight to get my cuts in anyway. The tour will also take us (minus Goldman) to Long Island on Saturday, with an appearance at the Border's Book Store in Westbury, located at 1260 Old Country Road. That'll be at 2:00 PM. Next week (the 15th), I'll be in Rockaway, New Jersey with Steve, I'll update you on the time and place later on.

A few quick hits:

The rap on Representative Anthony Weiner, like his political mentor, Chuck Shumer, is that it's very dangerous to get between him and a TV camera, ever. He's also one of the more partisan politicos you'll find, which is one reason I hope his plea to the Attorney General, not to waste further federal resources on Roger Clemens finds a sympathetic audience. I'm on the record saying that Congress had no justification trying to sort Clemens's and Brian McNamee's dirty laundry in the first place; the investigation requested by the Oversight Committee is pouring more money after the initial bad investment of time and funds.

For BP subscribers, a couple of fresh Yankees links: Will Carroll's Team Health Report, and Kevin Goldstein's Organizational Rankings, which lists the Pinstripers as the #6 organization in the game.

I also had a quick take on Moneyball and the retirement of Jeremy Brown for Prospectus Toolbox earlier this week. Here's a taste:

The news that Jeremy Brown was hanging up his spikes due to "personal issues" made more of a stir last week than you'd expect from the retirement of a 28-year-old catcher who's spent the last two years in Triple-A. Our prospects expert, Kevin Goldstein, gave Brown an extremely evenhanded send-off over on Unfiltered; others have been less charitable, invoking imaginary choruses of scouts cheering the end of Brown's career. At least, I hope the cheering is imaginary: it'd take a Grinch-sized heart to rejoice in the end of someone's big-league dreams, unless their name is, say, Ben Christensen. The reason that Brown is the focus of such attention and schadenfreude is because the A's drafted him in the first round of the 2002 draft—an overdraft which, by itself, wouldn't be that noteworthy—and because Michael Lewis wrote a best-selling book which hailed Brown's selection as the bellwether of a new way of doing business, which the author dubbed "Moneyball" in the book of the same name. Apparently, those celebrating Brown's retirement are marking the occasion as the death of Moneyball acumen—a festive wake, with dancing and ironic toasts.

Now, Brown never asked to be the Luke Skywalker of a sabermetric revolution. He was a guy who was already going to face a fair amount of hazing in the minors because his body was not quite one that Calvin Klein would put on a billboard. After Moneyball was published, not only was he much more famous than the average 35^th overall pick, the negative aspects of his physique were cataloged in the book for ease of heckling. Saddling him with the additional burden of representing the A's organizational philosophy—as interpreted by Lewis—was never particularly fair. However, five years removed from the book's initial release, it is a reasonable time to look back at the 2002 draft, and at the A's organization in general, and ask: is Moneyball really dead?

Odds and Ends

Apparently, Don Mattingly won't be an on-the-field coach for the Dodgers, after all:

Mattingly Steps Down as Hitting Coach (MLB.com)

The Daily News is reporting that the reason Mattingly's stepping away from the job is because Mattingly and his wife of 28 years, Kim, have separated:

Mattingly Leaves Joe Torre's Side Because of Family Matters (McCarron, NY Daily News)

This is horrible news, and our thoughts and prayers go out to Don and his family. My most prominent memory of Kim Mattingly was courtesy of the really drunk guy behind me at Don Mattingly Day, who spent the entire ceremony yelling "Kiiiiim! Show us your legs! Kiiiiim!" This also happened to be the fellow for whom the expression "Say it, don't spray it," was coined.

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Ex-Yank Chuck Knoblauch is being subpoenaed to testify before the House of Representatives in the Clemens-McNamee-Pettitte inquiry:

Feds Issue Subpoena for Knoblauch (Thompson & Red, NY Daily News)

The interesting point here is that Knoblauch blew off a deposition that'd been scheduled, which is why a subpoena was issued. Knoblauch has indicated that he no longer wants to be involved with baseball, but as Al Pacino once said, "I try to get out...but they keep pulling me back in!"

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Given the choice of the Yankees giving up the farm for Johan Santana, the Red Sox lording Santana over the Yanks after acquiring him for a much weaker package, or the Demon Lefty of Minnesota nestling safely in the NL...um, let's go Mets?

Mets' Santana Offer Remains the Same (Cothran--Star Ledger)

Yeah, they're rivals too. But it would still be waaaaay less annoying.

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Everybody has dreams, mine just happen to involve Tim Raines and Mediterranean sidewalk cafes:

Prospectus Toolbox: How to Write a Letter of Complaint (BP.com)

Quick quote from that column about the burgeoning Jim Rice crowd out there:

Be political: Like any election, that to the Hall of Fame election is a political process, so you might do well by co-opting some of the language and tactics of political discourse. Many of Jim Rice's Hall of Fame proponents have adopted a rhetorical stance that seems torn from the land of "job-killing taxes" and "Washington-insider special-interest lobbyists." Their campaign is no longer to get Rice inducted to Cooperstown, it's to keep his detractors from "excluding" him from the Hall of Fame. This "exclusion" language takes Rice's qualifications for induction as a foregone conclusion, and places the burden on his opponents to say why he doesn't belong. It also invites accusations that Rice's detractors are doing something wrong or harmful when they criticize his Hall-worthiness—they're accused of "attacking" Rice or "denigrating" his achievements. Regardless of whether you agree with the sentiment, the tactic seems to be working—Rice has gained votes each of the past five years—so a similar rhetorical stance could help you make the case for your favorite Hall-worthy candidate.

That kind of talk bugs me, as does political-speak in general. And to think, we're only in January of an election year! Aside from Hall of Fame commentary and useful advice, this week's column also features a contest, where the winner will get a free copy of the 2008 Baseball Prospectus annual--so feel free to enter!

I've also been paying attention to developments in the Dominican League Finals:

The Trials of Tejada (BP Unfiltered)

Colon-o-Scopy (BP Unfiltered)

Thanks to ESPN Deportes, I think I might have seen more baseball in January this year than I saw in May of last. I'll admit, I thought my team, Licey, was dead in the water when they lost the first three games. Luckily, the Dominican finals are a best-of-nine, so there's still time for them to recover after winning games 4 and 5.

Proof of Life

My head's been wrapped so deep in work that it's starting to feel like a hostage situation. I feel the need to post here more as proof to the proud few of you that still read this space that I'm still alive, and relatively well. If any of you need further proof, I can post a picture of myself with today's newspaper (the Times, sadly, which is La Chiquita's subscription).

Since the last time we posted:

Jorge Posada Signs for 4 Years, $52 Million -- The rise of H&H Steinbrenner means that we're shifting from IOGM (It's Only George's Money) paradigm to the slightly more generic IOSM (It's Only Steinbrenner's Money). One way to look at it is, is paying $26 Million for Jorge Posada's age 38 and 39 seasons really a good idea? That's a daunting question, to which I can only answer: IOSM. But the real question is, what was the alternative? Yorvit Torrealba? Michael Barrett? Paul Lo Freakin' Duca? You've got to tip your hat to Hip, Hip Jorge! for having an A+ season in his walk year, at a time when there wasn't another viable soul on the market.

Yanks Offer Mariano $45 Million for 3 Years -- I'm less than overjoyed with the Yankees new policy of sharing their every negotiating thought with the press; divulging their contract offers to Joe Torre, Alex Rodriguez and now Mariano Rivera with a plaintive cry of "Look! We're offering these folks top dollar!" seems like some backstepping toward the bad old days when George Steinbrenner and Billy Martin used reporters the way other people used telephones. Still, this is a great deal for Rivera. Look at it this way: over the last five years, Mariano's averaged just under 75 innings per season. Paying him $15 million a year would likely be over $200,000 per inning, which is a pretty world-beating return for anyone this side of Carl Pavano. By way of comparison, Roger Clemens received $189K/inning this season, on his absurd contract. That's some nice coin.

Barry Bonds Indicted -- This is today's news. Obstruction of justice and perjury are the reported charges, which leaves out the most serious charge leveled against him, for tax evasion. Expect a number of articles tomorrow about how this is the worst thing to happen in baseball history. Fay Vincent has already gone on the record claiming that this is worse than Pete Rose's gambling and tax evasion, and possibly worse than the Black Sox scandal. That's crazy talk.

Barry Bonds's getting indicted--after three or four years' worth of grand juries to toll the statute of limitations for perjury--is a sad thing. But it's something distinct from baseball's (or Bonds's) steroids problem, in the same way that Rose's tax evasion conviction was distinct from his permanent suspension from baseball for gambling. If Rose's suspension had been for failing to pay his taxes--a serious legal offense, and one that no one could justify--then I'm 99% certain he'd be in the Hall of Fame today. Sports and the law work in parallel worlds; in the sports world, his biggest offense (betting on baseball, and on the Reds) could have been carried out legally, but it was more serious than his violation of the law. In the baseball world, it's established that gambling is a more serious offense than PED use--the proof is in the respective punishments (lifetime ban for gambling vs. 50 games for the first steroid offense, less for amphetamines) and the basic "shrug and nod" response that the whole thing is given in other sports, like football.

A side note: The thing I like about Mr. Vincent is how, even 15 years after being ousted as Commissioner of Baseball by Bud Selig, he still acts as if he were the Commissioner in Exile rather than just some guy who got fired. Rather than just publishing his memoirs and going away, he's establishing a shadow government. And until the tyranny of the Selig regime collapses, and Vincent is restored to his rightful place in MLB's Madison Avenue offices, he's available to talk the media--at all times--and second-guess everything that happens in the game from the sidelines. It's a pretty sweet gig, if you can get it.

Alex Rodriguez Resumes Negotiations with Yankees -- In the time that it took me to write the foregoing, the Yanks and A-Rod have reportedly come to terms on a 10-year $275 million contract. The story's not mature, involving more than a little rumor-mongering that's keeping me from commenting at this time.

...to be continued.

Joba's Dad

Sweet win for the Yanks tonight, made all the sweeter because Harlan Chamberlain was in attendance at Kaufman Stadium. Not the start that we were looking for from Ian Kennedy--he allowed seven hits and three walks--all the walks coming in the first inning--in five innings. But he pitched out of trouble, allowing only two runs against the Kansas City offense. That meant he left the game tied, after the team's MVPs, Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada, went yard against Gil Meche in the top of the second.

After Blockhead Kyle pitched an effective sixth, the Yanks pushed across a run in the seventh on a Bobby Abreu double, and then it was Joba time. Just before Joba's first pitch in the bottom of the seventh, came perhaps my favorite moment of this entire season, as Joba's dad, Harlan, started crying when he finally saw his son take a major league mound, for the first time in person. I'm not ashamed to say that it got dusty in my apartment, seeing how moved the elder Mr. Chamberlain was. Later on, the YES crew caught Harlan's reaction as Johnny Damon made a running catch in left-center for the third out of the seventh inning, which was itself priceless.

It's easy for fans to slag baseball's broadcasts, since for the most part we only notice the things they get wrong--the idiot half-baked opinion of a color commentator, the missed first pitch coming out of commercial. I think the YES production crew deserves a lot of credit for keeping our attention on the section Chamberlain rooters (about 120 Nebraskans who came down with the Chamberlains to Missouri to see Joba pitch) and then getting us those wonderful shots of Harlan Chamberlain as his son warmed up and pitched his two innings. They did a great job, as did Ken Singleton and John Flaherty in the booth. Good work all around.

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Things to watch for tomorrow: Derek Jeter got hit in the hand in the eighth, which brings up the question of reprisals during tomorrow's game, and whether or not Jeter, who's been chronically beat up this season, will be able to make the start. We could see Wilson Betemit get some playing time against the Royals best pitcher, Brian Bannister, tomorrow.

The Yankees won coin tosses for any ties for the Wild Card at the end of the season. So should Detroit or Seattle get even with the Bombers for the last AL playoff spot, that game would be played at the Stadium. Speaking of the Tigers and Mariners, the two teams played tonight, with Detroit coming out on top. The Mariners remain in the meltdown state that saw them drop nine in a row coming into the series they just lost against the Yankees.

Probably the most distasteful thing I've seen today has been people listing the Rick Ankiel story--that back in 2004 (when he was still a pitcher, IIRC) Ankiel took HGH--as being on the same level as Tony Larussa's DUI incident, and and the drunk-driving death of Cardinals pitcher Josh Hancock. Ankiel only endangered himself, and that allegedly three years ago. Larussa and Hancock endangered everybody else on the road, and Hancock tragically lost his life. In a statement to the press, St. Louis GM Walt Jocketty called the Ankiel story "very tragic" (if it's true) which given the other things that have happened to his team this year, is a good indication that he does not know what that word, tragic, means.